Sunday, October 31, 2010

31 October, 2010

NEW: USA WINTER FORECAST IS NOW AVAILABLE AND CAN BE FOUND BELOW UK FORECAST RIGHT HERE!

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Mark Vogan’s Official 2010-2011 Winter Forecast for Great Britain and Europe


Britain to face a 3rd straight winter with significant periods of cold and snow, however worst of winter will hang over central and eastern Europe, making this year different to last.



KEY HIGHLIGHTS


Like experienced during the winter 2008-09 there will be a series of cold waves brought in from the Arctic presenting much of the UK with snow and low temperatures.  With perhaps several cold waves this year, these blasts of Arctic air will likely last 5-10 days on average throughout the winter season (December through March) with milder Atlantic air filtering back in between each cold period.

The November 20th through December 31st period may turn out to be the worst part of winter, with a set up eerily similar to the closing days of December 1995 which brought a low of -20C to Glasgow and a tie of the UK record of -27C at Altnaharra, Sutherland!


Coldest air of winter to settle over Western Europe, including UK during first half of season, then migrate eastwards as the season progresses allowing mild Atlantic air to rule for the mid-point of winter. 

Much of December may be much below normal from Inverness all the way to the south coast of England with daytime highs struggling to get above freezing.  Nights, if there's plenty of snowcover, may see temperatures plunge below -10C across much of Britain away from the coast with some of the coldest spots in England (Shap, Cumbria, Woodford, Manchester, Benson, Oxfordshire) pushing into the -15 to -18C range and some Scottish Highland locales such as Dalwhinnie, Tulloch Bridge, Tyndrum, Aviemore, Altnaharra and Braemar may take a run at the values experienced last winter (-18 to -22C).

All of the major Scottish cities of Glasgow, Edinburgh, Perth, Dundee and Inverness may see highs only warm to -3 or -4C with night time lows plummeting under the perfect conditions of an already very cold air mass, clear skies, light winds, an Arctic high pressure cell overhead along with widespread snowcover which will allow maximum radiational cooling and may drive night time lows into the -11 to -15C range in these cities. Major towns such as Stirling, Livingston, East Kilbride, Airdrie to name just a few, may see days struggle to also reach -3 or -4C. With the same conditions in less urban-warmed environments of towns and plenty of snow covering the ground to help trap heat being released by the soils below, nights may plunge to near record values, dipping towards -15C. Yes even in town and city centres.

The major cities of northern and central England and Wales may also be in for a cruel blast from the Arctic, though snow should cover many places, temperatures in towns and cities that are away from the moderating influences of both the North Sea and Irish Sea and have snow on the ground may take a run at -8 to -10C. Liverpool may shiver to -7C whilst further inland Manchester, just west of the Pennines may see lows push -10 to -12C whilst Woodford which hit a frigid -18C last year may push -15C, given last year's value was extreme!


I expect Birmingham to drop towards -8 to -10C and similar values for Oxford. London may be in for colder than anything experienced even during the cold of winter 2008-09. Whilst the lowest values at Heathrow were -6C, a -7C or perhaps even a -8C is possible this year!

After a fairly tough December overall and a high probability for a White Christmas across much of interior Scotland including the Central Belt of Scotland (Glasgow to Edinburgh and points north and south that are away from the coast) as well as many areas of interior northern and central England including the Midlands, but snow may stretch as far south as Oxford and outlying areas of Greater London and interior Wales, (Northern Ireland may not see much snow) a major mild period is likely to hit as all the cold Arctic air commences it's migration eastwards towards the heart of central and eastern Europe from Germany and Poland southward to Switzerland, Italy and across to the eastern European countries of the Ukraine, Romania and Turkey, this will be their turn to experience a brutal mid and later part of winter 2010-11. I expect this transition from very cold and snowy to very mild and perhaps wet and stormy for the UK and western Europe close to or slightly after New Year and may stretch through much of January. The heart of winter from January 1st through February 1st may see a harsh and severe winter period set in with Moscow perhaps enduring one of it's worst deep freezes in living memory, many central and eastern European countries are likely to see some of the coldest temperatures in 50 to 100 years along with many deaths.

After the milder period, on and off, less intense cold and snow will impact through February and March.

A LITTLE INSIGHT INTO MARK’S THOUGHTS

SPRING AND SUMMER PATTERN TELLING A STORY


After periods of record-breaking cold which have shivered the UK, outwith the more typical cold season with last May displaying the coldest values since 1996, August being the coldest in 17 years with a frosty close to what’s typically a summer-month and both September and October showing yet more unusual cold for the time of year. Though I don’t see this as a sign of a truly brutal winter ahead, I do see this telling me other things about the winter ahead for us Brits and indeed across the continent.


UPCOMING WINTER MAY HAVE MORE IN COMMON WITH WINTER 2008-09 THAN LAST YEAR


Winter 2008-2009 was a cold winter when comparing the previous ones with repeated cold and snowy periods. Remember the snow that crippled London in February, all in all it was colder and snowier than anything seen since 2000-2001 and MUCH colder than those warm, wet and wind-ridden ones leading up to 08-09. But despite 2008-09 displaying some of the coldest temperatures in many years and plenty of snowy periods, there was milder weather in between, including a mild period which shattered our chances of a White Christmas after the coldest start to a December in some 30 years.
 Last winter of course was near impossible to not have that White Christmas with picture-perfect scenes and too much cold, across pretty much all of western and central Europe….


So, why not the same kind of winter to last? That question is simple, there are different drivers or players on the field, that will alter the tactics as to how and where Old Man Winter will fire the shots.


Instead of an El Nino last year, we have a La Nina, this tends to set up the upper-atmospheric pattern differently to an El Nino, thus explaining first and foremost why I think this year will be different. La Ninas don’t tend to favour as much cold to “western” Europe as much as El Nino, however, always remember that no El Nino or La Nina is created equal or the same, therefore that is just the start of the complications to this year’s forecast.


A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE CREATES THE EXTREMES WITHIN THE FORECAST


Over the past 6-12 months now, perhaps due to increased high-latitude volcanic activity or not, the pattern across the Northern World has very much been dominated by a “blocking pattern”, large ridges and troughs that sit in one place for weeks, if not months, that’s what we’ve seen this summer with the warm, dry settled pattern to start. But then as summer matured that ridge migrated eastwards, and our atmosphere was replaced by a trough, bringing the mid and later part of our summer unsettled and generally cool weather, yet 1,000 miles to the east, it was the hottest summer on record in Russia and surrounding countries.
 Last winter the “stuck pattern” brought a dominated Arctic “Continental” pattern of very low temperatures and periods of snow, combining the snow cover, persistency in the cold air to keep the snow from melting as well as what I would call the “classic El Nino” winter trough over western Europe as well as the shear depth of Arctic air which was contained within that huge trough, that is what brought us very cold temperatures, persistently from late December through late March and all the way into May.

ULTIMATELY WINTER 2010-2011 TO SEE LESS PERSISTENCY IN THE COLD COMPARED TO LAST YEAR BUT WHEN THE COLD AND SNOW DOES HIT, IT MAY BE WORSE THAN LAST YEAR IN AREAS!!

I have fought and fought with my ideas right up till now (Oct 29th) about just how cold and snowy the periods will be this year.

Although the La Nina pattern as it sets in this year, particularly into the later half of the winter would suggest the Arctic trough to be bias towards eastern Europe, there is part of me, that’s not wanting to suggest that we’re in for a warm mid to later part of winter.


Other factors……

LOW SOLAR CYCLE PLAYING A ROLE IN A COLD FORECAST

Whilst there will be a substantial mild period in between cold for the UK, this forecast, like last years is colder than what many have out. So why am I forecasting for extreme cold again?

My reasoning for the cold to be as severe as I believe it will be is because of the continued "very low solar cycle" and this also played a major deciding factor into last year's forecast. There has been little pick-up of activity on the face of the sun. The more sun spots there are, the more active it becomes. Though there has been more spots appearing over recent months when compared to this time last year, it remains very quiet and this worries me about the effect this may directly have on our winter again here. By looking at history, the activity on the sun and it's relationship to temperatures here on earth relate hand in hand and this coupled with an increase in high-latitude or Arctic volcanic activity and their impact on cooling as well as more importantly "high latitude blocking" means that though the pattern of the upper-levels is different and would likely suggest milder rather than colder, there are outside factors that I believe can't be ignored.

Feel free to add your comments or email me regarding this forecast.

NEW!
Mark Vogan's Official 2010-2011 US Winter Forecast
After an easier, less snowy and cold winter across the N. Plains and Midwest and a tough, cold and record snowy winter from north Texas to Washington DC, it will be the opposite this year

A flip of extremes will be the script for the show this winter season across the US lower 48. Alaska looks to be in for the worst of winter this year when looking at the whole of North America, after getting off lightly last year. In fact folks living in the 49th state may well endure a harsher winter than anything endured in many a year with expectations high of plenty of early season snow which will set the stage for possibly a record challenging 2-month stretch where the interior  frequently hits -70 or lower temperatures. Fairbanks may be in for it's first -50 or lower temperature in many years. If you think that this winter will be a complete upside down of last year, your spot on.

SOUTH AND MID-ATLANTIC'S COLD AND SNOWY WINTER OF 09-10
AN UNUSUAL PLACE TO FIND UNUSUAL RECORD COLD AS WELL AS RECORD SNOW

Where it was cold and indeed snowy, it was also both found in a rare part of the continent and was done in record breaking style with sections of Florida shivering in it's coldest winter on record and Dallas being a fraction away from it's snowiest winter on record.
For both cold and snow, a path streatching from Dallas, across the Deep South, up into the Mid-Atlantic states and the southern stretch of the I-95 corridor was where winter was worst last year. In contrast it was relatively tame with a milder and less snowy winter across the central West, Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains and Great Lakes as well as New England. The areas which should be milder weren't and the places that should be harsher were milder.

AREAS THAT GOT OFF LIGHT LAST YEAR ARE IN FOR WINTER'S PAYBACK, THOSE WHO SUFFERED WILL FIND RELIEF

For those stretching from Southern California to Georgia who hate cold, rain, cloud, snow or winter in general and suffered last year, thinking they'd moved to a place which shouldn't have the weather they did, well this year should be a return to the "norm" or even better!.

EACH 500-MILE STRETCH YOU HEAD DIRECTLY NORTHWEST OF INDIANAPOLIS, WINTER'S PUNCH WILL BE MORE SEVERE WITH THE CORE OF WINTER CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL ALASKA AND THE YUKON!

My quote as unusual and as wierd as it may be is my "catchphrase" if you will this year. I believe the worst of winter will stretch from the epicenter of cold which will be the eastern interior of Alaska and the Yukon of Canada and will stretch in a near perfect southeast line, slicing through North America's core and across Chicago and into Indianapolis. Fingers of cold will reach both westwards into the Pacific Northwest and eastwards into the Northeast, presenting colder weather than anything seen last year. Icestorms may effect the Central Plains, in a line stretching from Garden City, Kansas through Kansas City, St Louis to Lexington, Kentucky. That means Oklahoma City to Dallas and across to Atlanta and the Carolinas may find very little in the way of snowstorms or even snow showers this winter (though they're not likely to see NO snow!).

PACIFIC STORM TRAIN LIFTS NORTH THIS WINTER
Whilst frequent Pacific energy punches into an active southbound Arctic air flow bringing a couple of sizable snowstorms to the Cascades, Rockies and the Plains, Alberta clippers will also be sent to present each and every fresh wave of Arctic air from the pole into the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. South of this year's "Icestorm Corridor", mentioned above, it should be mostly sunny with milder than normal temperatures which at times may creep their way out of the Wichita Falls (Texas) to Wilmington (North Carolina) corridor and push 60s or even 70s up towards and through DC, Baltimore and Philadelphia during mid-winter as the "Southeast La Nina ridge" fluctuations in size throughout the season.

Though the Northeast region from Trenton, New Jersey up through Boston to Caribou, Maine may on the whole average out near normal, there is a high probability of one if not two periods where the Arctic air which slams into the Great Lakes may get all the way across to the East Coast and suppress the La Nina ridge, bringing very cold weather for a time throughout much of the nations Midsection and Northeast. Whilst temperatures got down to a respectable 6-degree in DC and Baltimore as well as New York during the cold wave of 2008-2009, last winter only saw lows drop down into the low 10s. This year may see lows more comparable to 2008-09!

As for the Pacific Northwest, this is likely to be a bumper snow year with potential for record snows in the Olympics of Washington and the Cascades as well as over the Northern and Central Rockies and Blackhills of South Dakota as the storm track this year shifts further north than last year. This shift is thanks to the La Nina rather than El Nino,. La Nina typically sends the storm track into the Pacific Northwest and the El Nino sends the storm track further south and into central and southern California. No southern storm track across this region means sunshine and warmth, the opposite to last winter.

A WARM TO AT TIMES HOT WINTER AHEAD FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, 90s, EVEN 100s MAY BE EXPERIENCED

I wouldn't be surpised if we didn't see a few Santa Ana wind episodes which would not only raise the fire risk as the winter precipitation over the region will be easily below, if not well below normal but with the further drying created by the winds which typically blow out of the northeast, this means HEAT! I recall winter of 2002-2003 when big snows occured over the Pacific Northwest and a warm, dry winter occured over Southern California. A strong Santa Ana wind event took place, creating not only major fires but also sent January temperatures into the 90s and there was a 100 degree reading found at Anaheim, yes in January!. This may occur in winter 2010-11.

The Extremes of the Day

Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather

High: 95 degrees at San Angelo, TX
Low: 15 degrees at Embarrass, MN

Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office

High: 59 degrees at Isles of Scilly
Low: 34 degrees at Aboyne

Today's Extremes here at my house

High: 49 degrees
Low: 41 degrees

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

All Photo's that are included have been taken by Mark Vogan during last winter.

SEAGOING HALLOWEEN
























(Illustration: Laurence Housman.) 

Trolling Project Gutenberg, I happened upon this old story by Jonas Lie (1833-1908), a beloved Norwegian author of the 19th-century. As best I can make out, it was one story in his two volumes of stories called Trold (troll). The story here was beautifully rendered from Norwegian by the British polyglot Robert Nisbet Bain (1854–1909). The book is illustrated with Art Nouveau drawings by Laurence Housman (1865-1959, younger brother of the poet A.E. Housman), including three of the four drawings in this post.




THE FISHERMAN AND THE DRAUG8


translated from the Norwegian by Robert Nisbet Bain (1893)
illustration by Laurence Housman 

 
ON KVALHOLM, down in Helgeland,1 dwelt a poor fisherman, Elias by name, with his wife Karen, who had been in service at the parson's over at Alstad. They had built them a hut here, and he used to go out fishing by the day about the Lofotens.

There could be very little doubt that the lonely Kvalholm was haunted. Whenever her husband was away, Karen heard all manner of uncanny shrieks and noises, which could mean no good. One day, when she was up on the hillside, mowing grass to serve as winter fodder for their couple of sheep, she heard, quite plainly, a chattering on the strand beneath the hill, but look over she durst not.

They had a child every year, but that was no burden, for they were both thrifty, hard-working folks. When seven years had gone by, there were six children in the house; but that same autumn Elias had scraped together so much that he thought he might now venture to buy a Sexæring,2 and henceforward go fishing in his own boat.

One day, as he was walking along with a Kvejtepig3 in his hand, and thinking the matter over, he unexpectedly came upon a monstrous seal, which lay sunning itself right behind a rock on the strand, and was as much surprised to see the man as the man was to see the seal. But Elias was not slack; from the top of the rock on which he stood, he hurled the long heavy Kvejtepig right into the monster's back, just below the neck.
























(Seal-folk listening to a mermaid's song. From a drawing by John Duncan. From here.)

The seal immediately rose up on its tail right into the air as high as a boat's mast, and looked so evilly and viciously at him with its bloodshot eyes, at the same time showing its grinning teeth, that Elias thought he should have died on the spot for sheer fright. Then it plunged into the sea, and lashed the water into bloody foam behind it. Elias didn't stop to see more, but that same evening there drifted into the boat place on Kvalcreek, on which his house stood, a Kvejtepole, with the hooked iron head snapped off.

Elias thought no more about it, but in the course of the autumn he bought his Sexæring, for which he had been building a little boat-shed the whole summer.

One night as he lay awake, thinking of his new Sexæring, it occurred to him that his boat would balance better, perhaps, if he stuck an extra log of wood on each side of it. He was so absurdly fond of the boat that it was a mere pastime for him to light a lantern and go down to have a look at it.

Now as he stood looking at it there by the light of the lantern, he suddenly caught a glimpse in the corner opposite, on a coil of nets, of a face which exactly resembled the seal's. For an instant it grinned savagely at him and the light, its mouth all the time growing larger and larger; and then a big man whisked out of the door, not so quickly, however, but that Elias could catch a glimpse, by the light of the lantern, of a long iron hooked spike sticking out of his back. And now he began to put one and two together. Still he was less anxious about his life than about his boat; so he there and then sat him down in it with the lantern, and kept watch. When his wife came in the morning, she found him sleeping there, with the burnt-out lantern by his side.


One morning in January, while he was out fishing in his boat with two other men, he heard, in the dark, a voice from a skerry at the very entrance of the creek. It laughed scornfully, and said, "When it comes to a Femböring,4 Elias, look to thyself!"

But there was many a long year yet before it did come to that; but one autumn, when his son Bernt was sixteen, Elias knew he could manage it, so he took his whole family with him in his boat to Ranen,5 to exchange his Sexæring for a Femböring. The only person left at home was a little Finn girl, whom they had taken into service some few years before, and who had only lately been confirmed.

Now there was a boat, a little Femböring, for four men and a boy, that Elias just then had his eye upona boat which the best boat-builder in the place had finished and tarred over that very autumn. Elias had a very good notion of what a boat should be, and it seemed to him that he had never seen a Femböring so well built below the water-line. Above the water-line, indeed, it looked only middling, so that, to one of less experience than himself, the boat would have seemed rather a heavy goer than otherwise, and anything but a smart craft.

Now the boat-master knew all this just as well as Elias. He said he thought it would be the swiftest sailer in Ranen, but that Elias should have it cheap, all the same, if only he would promise one thing, and that was, to make no alteration whatever in the boat, nay, not so much as adding a fresh coat of tar. Only when Elias had expressly given his word upon it did he get the boat.

But "yon laddie"6 who had taught the boat-master how to build his boats so cunningly below the water-lineabove the water-line he had had to use his native wits, and they were scant enoughmust surely have been there beforehand, and bidden him both sell it cheaply, so that Elias might get it, and stipulate besides that the boat should not be looked at too closely. In this way it escaped the usual tarring fore and aft.

Elias now thought about sailing home, but went first into the town, provided himself and family with provisions against Christmas, and indulged in a little nip of brandy besides. Glad as he was over the day's bargain, he, and his wife too, took an extra drop in their e'en, and their son Bernt had a taste of it too.

After that they sailed off homewards in their new boat. There was no other ballast in the boat but himself, his old woman, the children, and the Christmas provisions. His son Bernt sat by the main-sheet; his wife, helped by her next eldest son, held the sail-ropes; Elias himself sat at the rudder, while the two younger brothers of twelve and fourteen were to take it in turns to bail out.

They had eight miles of sea to sail over, and when they got into the open, it was plain that the boat would be tested pretty stiffly on its first voyage. A gale was gradually blowing up, and crests of foam began to break upon the heavy sea.

And now Elias saw what sort of a boat he really had. She skipped over the waves like a sea-mew; not so much as a splash came into the boat, and he therefore calculated that he would have no need to take in all his clews7 against the wind, which an ordinary Femböring would have been forced to do in such weather.
Out on the sea, not very far away from him, he saw another Femböring, with a full crew, and four clews in the sail, just like his own. It lay on the same course, and he thought it rather odd that he had not noticed it before. It made as if it would race him, and when Elias perceived that, he could not for the life of him help letting out a clew again.

And now he went racing along like a dart, past capes and islands and rocks, till it seemed to Elias as if he had never had such a splendid sail before. Now, too, the boat showed itself what it really was, the best boat in Ranen.

The weather, meantime, had become worse, and they had already got a couple of dangerous seas right upon them. They broke in over the main-sheet in the forepart of the boat where Bernt sat, and sailed out again to leeward near the stern.

Since the gloom had deepened, the other boat had kept almost alongside, and they were now so close together that they could easily have pitched the baling-can from one to the other.

So they raced on, side by side, in constantly stiffer seas, till night-fall, and beyond it. The fourth clew ought now to have been taken in again, but Elias didn't want to give in, and thought he might bide a bit till they took it in in the other boat also, which they needs must do soon. Ever and anon the brandy-flask was brought out and passed round, for they had now both cold and wet to hold out against.

The sea-fire, which played on the dark billows near Elias's own boat, shone with an odd vividness in the foam round the other boat, just as if a fire-shovel was ploughing up and turning over the water. In the bright phosphorescence he could plainly make out the rope-ends on board her. He could also see distinctly the folks on board, with their sou'westers on their heads; but as their larboard side lay nearest, of course they all had their backs towards him, and were well-nigh hidden by the high heeling hull.

Suddenly a tremendous roller burst upon them. Elias had long caught a glimpse of its white crest through the darkness, right over the prow where Bernt sat. It filled the whole boat for a moment, the planks shook and trembled beneath the weight of it, and then, as the boat, which had lain half on her beam-ends, righted herself and sped on again, it streamed off behind to leeward.

While it was still upon him, he fancied he heard a hideous yell from the other boat; but when it was over, his wife, who sat by the shrouds, said, with a voice which pierced his very soul: "Good God, Elias! the sea has carried off Martha and Nils!-their two youngest children, the first nine, the second seven years old, who had been sitting in the hold near Bernt. Elias merely answered: "Don't let go the lines, Karen, or you'll lose yet more!"

They had now to take in the fourth clew, and, when this was done, Elias found that it would be well to take in the fifth and last clew too, for the gale was ever on the increase; but, on the other hand, in order to keep the boat free of the constantly heavier seas, he dare not lessen the sail a bit more than he was absolutely obliged to do; but they found that the scrap of sail they could carry gradually grew less and less. The sea seethed so that it drove right into their faces, and Bernt and his next eldest brother Anthony, who had hitherto helped his mother with the sail-lines, had, at last, to hold in the yards, an expedient one only resorts to when the boat cannot bear even the last clewhere the fifth.

The companion boat, which had disappeared in the meantime, now suddenly ducked up alongside again, with precisely the same amount of sail as Elias's boat; but he now began to feel that he didn't quite like the look of the crew on board there. The two who stood and held in the yards (he caught a glimpse of their pale faces beneath their sou'westers) seemed to him, by the odd light of the shining foam, more like corpses than men, nor did they speak a single word.

A little way off to larboard he again caught sight of the high white back of a fresh roller coming through the dark, and he got ready betimes to receive it. The boat was laid to with its prow turned aslant towards the on-rushing wave, while the sail was made as large as possible, so as to get up speed enough to cleave the heavy sea and sail out of it again. In rushed the roller with a roar like a foss; again, for an instant, they lay on their beam ends; but, when it was over, the wife no longer sat by the sail ropes, nor did Anthony stand there any longer holding the yardsthey had both gone overboard.

This time also Elias fancied he heard the same hideous yell in the air; but in the midst of it he plainly heard his wife anxiously calling him by name. All that he said when he grasped the fact that she was washed overboard, was, "In Jesus' Name!" His first and dearest wish was to follow after her, but he felt at the same time that it became him to save the rest of the freight he had on board, that is to say, Bernt and his other two sons, one twelve, the other fourteen years old, who had been baling out for a time, but had afterwards taken their places in the stern behind him.

Bernt had now to look to the yards all alone, and the other two helped as best they could. The rudder Elias durst not let slip, and he held it fast with a hand of iron, which continuous exertion had long since made insensible to feeling.

A moment afterwards the comrade boat ducked up again: it had vanished for an instant as before. Now, too, he saw more of the heavy man who sat in the stern there in the same place as himself. Out of his back, just below his sou'wester (as he turned round it showed quite plainly), projected an iron spike six inches long, which Elias had no difficulty in recognising again. And now, as he calmly thought it all over, he was quite clear about two things: one was that it was the Draug8 itself which was steering its half-boat close beside him, and leading him to destruction; the other was that it was written in heaven that he was to sail his last course that night. For he who sees the Draug on the sea is a doomed man. He said nothing to the others, lest they should lose heart, but in secret he commended his soul to God.

During the last hour or so he had been forced out of his proper course by the storm; the air also had become dense with snow; and Elias knew that he must wait till dawn before land could be sighted. Meanwhile he sailed along much the same as before. Now and then the boys in the stern complained that they were freezing; but, in the plight they were now in, that couldn't be helped, and, besides, Elias had something else to think about. A terrible longing for vengeance had come over him, and, but for the necessity of saving the lives of his three lads, he would have tried by a sudden turn to sink the accursed boat which kept alongside of him the whole time as if to mock him; he now understood its evil errand only too well. If the Kvejtepig9 could reach the Draug before, a knife or a gaff might surely do the same thing now, and he felt that he would gladly have given his life for one good grip of the being who had so mercilessly torn from him his dearest in this world and would fain have still more.

At three or four o'clock in the morning they saw coming upon them through the darkness a breaker of such a height that at first Elias thought they must be quite close ashore near the surf swell. Nevertheless, he soon recognised it for what it really wasa huge billow. Then it seemed to him as if there was a laugh over in the other boat, and something said, "There goes thy boat, Elias!" He, foreseeing the calamity, now cried aloud: "In Jesus' Name!" and then bade his sons hold on with all their might to the withy-bands by the rowlocks when the boat went under, and not let go till it was above the water again. He made the elder of them go forward to Bernt; and himself held the youngest close by his side, stroked him once or twice furtively down the cheeks, and made sure that he had a good grip. The boat, literally buried beneath the foaming roller, was lifted gradually up by the bows and then went under. When it rose again out of the water, with the keel in the air, Elias, Bernt, and the twelve-year-old Martin lay alongside, holding on by the withy-bands; but the third of the brothers was gone.

They had now first of all to get the shrouds on one side cut through, so that the mast might come to the surface alongside instead of disturbing the balance of the boat below; and then they must climb up on the swaying bottom of the boat and stave in the key-holes, to let out the air which kept the boat too high in the water, and so ease her. After great exertions they succeeded, and Elias, who had got up on the top first, now helped the other two up after him.

There they sat through the long dark winter night, clinging convulsively on by their hands and knees to the boat's bottom, which was drenched by the billows again and again.

After the lapse of a couple of hours died Martin, whom his father had held up the whole time as far as he was able, of sheer exhaustion, and glided down into the sea. They had tried to cry for help several times, but gave it up at last as a bad job.

Whilst they two thus sat all alone on the bottom of the boat, Elias said to Bernt he must now needs believe that he too was about to be "along o' mother!"10 but that he had a strong hope that Bernt, at any rate, would be saved, if he only held out like a man. Then he told him all about the Draug, whom he had struck below the neck with the Kvejtepig, and how it had now revenged itself upon him, and certainly would not forbear till it was "quits with him."

It was towards nine o'clock in the morning when the grey dawn began to appear. Then Elias gave to Bernt, who sat alongside him, his silver watch with the brass chain, which he had snapped in two in order to drag it from beneath his closely buttoned jacket. He held on for a little time longer, but, as it got lighter, Bernt saw that his father's face was deadly pale, his hair too had parted here and there, as often happens when death is at hand, and his skin was chafed off his hands from holding on to the keel. The son understood now that his father was nearly at the last gasp, and tried, so far as the pitching and tossing would allow it, to hold him up; but when Elias marked it, he said, "Nay, look to thyself, Bernt, and hold on fast. I go to motherin Jesus' Name!" and with that he cast himself down headlong from the top of the boat.

Every one who has sat on the keel of a boat long enough knows that when the sea has got its own it grows much calmer, though not immediately. Bernt now found it easier to hold on, and still more of hope came to him with the brightening day. The storm abated, and, when it got quite light, it seemed to him that he knew where he was, and that it was outside his own homestead, Kvalholm, that he lay driving.

He now began again to cry for help, but his chief hope was in a current which he knew bore landwards at a place where a headland broke in upon the surge, and there the water was calmer. And he did, in fact, drive closer and closer in, and came at last so near to one of the rocks that the mast, which was floating by the side of the boat all the time, surged up and down in the swell against the sloping cliff. Stiff as he now was in all his limbs from sitting and holding on, he nevertheless succeeded, after a great effort, in clambering up the cliff, where he hauled the mast ashore, and made the Femböring fast.

The Finn girl, who was alone in the house, had been thinking, for the last two hours, that she had heard cries for help from time to time, and as they kept on she mounted the hill to see what it was. There she saw Bernt up on the cliff, and the overturned Femböring bobbing up and down against it. She immediately dashed down to the boat-place, got out the old rowing-boat, and rowed along the shore and round the island right out to him.

Bernt lay sick under her care the whole winter through, and didn't go a fishing all that year. Ever after this, too, it seemed to folks as if the lad were a little bit daft.

On the open sea he never would go again, for he had got the sea-scare. He wedded the Finn girl, and moved over to Malang, where he got him a clearing in the forest, and he lives there now, and is doing well, they say.
























(Illustration: Laurence Housman.)















line

[1] A district in northern Norway.
[2] A boat with three oars on each side.
[3] A long pole, with a hooked iron spike at the end of it, for spearing Kvejte or hallibut with.
[4] A large boat with five oars on each side, used for winter fishing in northern Norway.
[5] The chief port in those parts.
[6] Hin Karen = "the devil." Karen is the Danish Karl.
[7] The Klör, or clews, were rings in the corner of the sail to fasten it down by in a strong wind. Setja ei Klo = "take in the sail a clew." Setja tvo, or tri Klör = "take it in two or three clews," i.e., diminish it still further as the wind grew stronger.
[8] A demon peculiar to the north Norwegian coast. It rides the seas in a half-boat. Compare Icelandic draugr.
[9] See note 3 above.
[10] Være med hu, Mor. Hu is the Danish Hun.

Saturday, October 30, 2010

30 October, 2010

SEE NOTE AT BOTTOM: Internet Connection Problems

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MARK VOGAN'S OFFICIAL 2010-2011 UNITED KINGDOM AND EUROPE WINTER FORECAST.. are you ready?

Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

Image Courtesy of CNN

New volcanic eruption sends Indonesians fleeing
CNN

Merapi Volcano and the Winter Outlook
AccuWeather News

Hurricane Tomas Closes Airports, Damages Buildings in St. Lucia
AccuWeather News

Russian Volcanoes Cease Spewing Ash
AccuWeather News

Chaba Departs Japan as More Heavy Rain Arrives
AccuWeather News


 Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather


Boulder Residents Evacuated for Wildfire Threat to Return Home
By Vickie Frantz, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer

Dry, Warm Southeast Winter will Worsen Drought
By Gina Cherundolo, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer


Damp, Dreary Weekend Day in the West
By Katie Storbeck, Meteorologist

Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan

FEELING THE DIRECT EFFECTS OF THE WEATHER!

Whether it be getting completely drenched whilst connecting up a trailer at the Tesco Depot at Livingston around 12.45am this morning or getting hammered along the A9 between Slochd Summit at over 1,300 feet above sea level (roughly 18 miles south of Inverness) and Dalwhinnie with a few gusts which made my heart slip a few beats as my truck and trailer gets leaned sideways in the screaming southerly gale. Yes I have been directly impacted by a classic October weather pattern, nothing unusual for Britain at this transitional time of the year, when the weather gets more active, winds become stronger as the colder asir starts to bump up against resisting warm air, therefore the atmosphere fights, low's deepen as the impalance of pressure becomes so, that the wind blows harder in an attempt to find equilibrium.

This pattern is such that it's very "Atlantic driven" and therefore it's not particularly cold, though I must admit it was a cold wind blowing early this morning up in Inverness but that being said, with all the mild south winds, even in the middle of the night, temperatures having been holding in the mid to even upper 50s as a strong push of maritime air rules the show accross Britain and western Europe.

I believe this pattern will continue but as we progress perhaps into the second week of November I believe the first cold of the early "new" season is lurking.. Expect another week to 10 days of mild Atlantic driven weather and then a turn to colder weather should begin to show... Remember, last November was a washout and Atlantic driven, on the heels of that in late December, a major cold and snow pattern took hold. This year I believe something similar may be lurking only earlier than last year with the arrival of cold, during the second or third week of November, a very cold end to November may be in the making, remember to check out my Winter Forecast which will give you an in-depth insight into what I believe the 3-month winter period may well have in store. This wilol be released in-fullm tomorrow evening at 5pm GMT... Don't miss it!!!

Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia

Saturday, October 30, 2010

The passing W.D. has brought warmer nights in the Northern regions. The average night temperatures in the plains of Northern India now have risen, and are in the 16c-18c range, higher than the previous few days. In fact the lowest in the northern plains was 13c at Hindon in U.P. on Saturday morning.



As discussed, this rise was expected due to the cloudy conditions, but this W.D. has almost moved away, and with clear skies in the next few nights, I expect the nights to bet cooler by Monday again.


Well the winds have changed! Literally. The SWM has moved away, giving way to the NEM from 29th.


The easterly waves have poured good rains in T.N. and coastal A.P.


Nellore 17, Ramanathapuram 11, Kavali 10, Venkatagiri town (Nellore dt) and Pamban 9 each were the highest receipants in cms, with Chennai measuring 64 mms in the 24 hrs ended Saturday morning.


Now all eyes on a new system from the Bay. The estimated system, which could gain strength and even become a cyclone, is projected to reach to a core pressure of 984 mb.


Likely to form in the Andaman Sea, on the 31st, its a pulse from 99B. The movement is expected to be westwards, and reach T.N. coast around the 6th. Nov. as a DD or cyclone.


Vagaries, looking at the synoptic scene today, projects the system to be seen by 31st. in the Andaman Sea, and move west, and cross the T.N. coast (could be Southern coast), around the 6th.


Later, after crossing inland,normally, it should move inland in a North-West track, and weaken. On weakening, its clouding will spread over an enlarged region, and cover all T.N,Karnataka and A.P, and South Mah. And thereby rains could be expected along its track.

Vagaries will monitor the development of this system from tomorrow, with updates.


Another low, albeit weak, is expected to form in the Arabian Sea off Goa/Karnataka coast around 3rd. November. besides cloudy weather in Gooa/Mah. coast, can precipitate light rains in madhya Mah. and Konkan.


But I prefer to wait before commiting to this development. Maybe for a couple of days.

This Blog is a proud partner to Vagaries of the Weather, See Vagaries in-full HERE!

What's Reaching Today's Blogs?

BOMBOGENESIS!

The Northest Quadrant

Salt Lake City Lake-Effect Snow Wednesday
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather

Tropical Storm Could Near Trinidad and Tobago
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather

The Extremes of the Day

Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather

High: 94 degrees at Big Spring, TX
Low: 16 degrees at West Yellowstone, MT

Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office

High: 60 degrees at Santon Downham
Low: 33 degrees at Katesbridge

Today's Extremes here at my house


High: 51 degrees
Low: 44 degrees

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

IMPORTANT NOTICE TO ALL READERS: Due to Continued Internet Broadband Connection Failure, there was no post yesterday, today's post has been written and uploaded from a computer away from home, appologies for the inconvenience, Mark Vogan hopes to be back online on his home computer as soon as possible and when the ongoing problem is fixed. Tomorrow's post and release of the Winter Forecast will be published here as scheduled at 5pm GMT Sunday, October 31, 2010...

THE STRANGE WORLD OF MUSHROOMS, ABOVE AND BELOW

(Close-up of live mushroom coral taken by James Nicholson of the Coral Culture and Collaborative Research Facility, South Carolina. This image took 13th place at the 2010 Nikon Small World Photography Contest.)


Mushroom corals are members of the Fungiidae, a family of interesting marine animals in the phylum Cnidaria, which includes corals, anemones, and jellyfish, as well as some aquatic species. 


Unlike the more familiar stony, or reef-building corals, most mushroom corals are not polyps roughly the size of ants living together in colonies that take the form of, say, staghorn corals.

(Heliofungia actiniformis. Photo by Samuel Chow, courtesy Wikimedia Commons.)


Instead most are free-living solitary polyps that grow to relatively enormous sizes. Heliofungia actiniformis (above) can reach 50 centimeters/20 inches in diameter. Believe it or not, the photograph above is of a single polyp.


(Fungia fungia. Photo by Jon Zander, Digon3, courtesy Wikimedia Commons.)


Many mushroom corals look dead or bleached until their tentacles emerge, generally after dark.


(Photo by Silke Baron, courtesy Wikimedia Commons.)


They share some interesting traits with their terrestrial (mostly) namesakes, the fungi, or mushrooms. 


Shape obviously. Though mostly it's the juvenile fungiids, growing on stalks, that resemble terrestrial fungi. Sorry can't find any pictures of them.


(Lycoperdon perlatum. Photo by Dohduhdah, courtesy Wikimedia Commons.) 


Mushrooms of the land are also amazing organisms. Enough so as to warrant a kingdom all their own, the Kingdom Fungi, separate from the plants, the animals (including mushroom corals), and the bacteria. 


























(Photo by Dohduhdah, courtesy Wikimedia Commons.) 


Genetically, mushrooms are more closely related to animals than plants.




(Portobello mushroom, Agaricus bisporus. Photo by Chameleon, courtesy Wikiemdia Commons.)


This seems pretty obvious to anyone who dines on mushrooms. A portobellowhich is simply the older fruit, or pileus, of a button and a crimini mushroomis downright meaty tasting.


(Photo by cyclonebill, courtesy Wikimedia Commons.


Of late, a few discoveries about mushrooms are bending our notions of time and space in the living world.


 (Armillaria ostoyae. Photo by Eric Steinert, courtesy Wikimedia Commons.) 


A clonal colony of honey mushrooms (Armillaria ostoyae) in Oregon has been found to extend across more than 965 hectares/2,384 acres of forested mountains.


The colony is estimated at between 1,900 and 8,650 years old.




(The unreleased spores of a morel mushroom {Morchella elata} magnified 40 times CORRECTION: taken with a 40X objective lens. Photo [and correction, see Comments, below] thanks to Peter G. Werner, courtesy Wikimedia Commons.)


The reproductive strategies of the Kingdom Fungi are equally exuberant. Many species reproduce sexually and/or asexually, depending on the stages of their life cycle and on environmental triggers.


In sexual reproduction, compatible individuals may combine by fusing their threadlike hyphae (the parts we usually don't see, underground or inside rotting trees) together into an interconnected network. As if humans mated by first fusing our bloodstreams.


The video below highlights, with the help of lasers, tiny mushroom spores.



Secret Sounds of Spores: Introduction from The Amazing Rolo on Vimeo.


The second video is part of the same ongoing beautiful fusion of art and science hyphae. Wish I could get to Edinburgh to see the installation.



The Boroscilloscope from The Amazing Rolo on Vimeo.


The release of mushroom spores is spectacularly reminiscent of spawning corals.





In the photo below you can see the tiny orange eggs being released by a female mushroom coral (Fungia scutaria) spawning at the Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology in Oahu. Looks kind of psychedelic.


(Photo by Jake Adams. From Advanced Aquarist's Online Magazine.)


Researchers from Japan recently discovered that mushroom corals can change sex and back again, a talent known as  sequential hermaphroditism. It's not all that unusual in the deep blue home. Some of the echinoderms, like urchins and sea stars, along with some of the crustaceans, mollusks, and bristle worms gender shift every which way too. 


In the mushroom corals studied so far, the smaller individuals are generally males and the larger individuals females. This makes sense when you consider the different time-and-energy investment required to make eggs versus sperm.


Mushroom corals, in their adult form, do have the ability to move, albeit very slowly, via three known mechanisms: by regulating buoyancy and floating away; by growing a hydromechanically adapted shape and floating away; or by creeping away. Motility enables them to seek out the sunniest locations on the reefsunlight fuels their endosymbiotic bacteriaand to escape being overgrown by other corals.


But might they be sprightlier than we think? 





(Mushroom coral eating moon jellyfish. From Coral Reefs.) 


Recently mushroom corals living in the Gulf of Aqaba were observed eating moon jellyfish (Aurelia aurita). How did they procure the wandering jellies? No one knows.


The papers:

  • B. A. Ferguson, T. A. Dreisbach, C. G. Parks, G. M. Filip, and C. L. Schmitt. Coarse-scale population structure of pathogenic Armillaria species in a mixed-conifer forest in the Blue Mountains of northeast Oregon. Can. J. For. Res. 33(4): 612–623 (2003). DOI:10.1139/x03-065.
  • Yossi Loya and Kazuhiko Sakai. Bidirectional sex change in mushroom stony corals. Proc Biol Sci B. 2008 October 22; 275(1649): 2335–2343. DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2008.0675.

UPDATE: Thanks to Joe Schmidt for sending along a view (below) of the coral fungus growing in a tree in his Illinois neighborhood. Seems a good looking case of convergent evocation.

























(Photo by Joe Schmidt.)


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