On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
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Weather Talk
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WINTER IS BACK AS ARCTIC AIR PRODUCES SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SCOTTISH HIGHLANDS, BITING WINDS EVERYWHERE ELSE!
TODAY IS THE COLDEST DAY SINCE MARCH 30TH.
Today marks the coldest in nearly 7 MONTHS. The last day where my high at my house failed to get above 46 degrees was a cold day back on March 30th when the high only made it to a chilly 37 degrees...
A cold air mass and northerly flow blasting it's way down from the Arctic is to blame for the sub-50 degree highs (10C) across much of the UK landmass and some Highland areas are likely failing or struggling to get above even the 40 degree mark 4C. Add in wind gusts topping 30 mph and it feels like it's below freezing.
Yes, a trough has dropped south over the UK and across much of western Europe and this has opened the door to a free running channel of air that's rushing down straight from the Arctic and thus bringing cold, icy winds and even snow showers to the mountains of northern Scotland and heavier snow to Scandinavia, the Baltic nations as well as the high peaks of the Alps (likely blizzard conditions in areas) Cold daytime highs will set the stage for a darn cold night tonight, certainly for October 19th, though not unprecidented, lows tonight will likely drop into the 24 to 26 degree range across many interior locales in Scotland and 26 to 28 degree range across interior England, Wales and Northern Ireland if and where winds are light (and these should ease by sunset tonight) and skies turning clear in widespread fashion, allowing the combination of an already Arctic air mass in place toi work with both the clear skies and light wind regime to drive temperatures to thwe lowest levels across a large area of both the UK and many areas of Western Europe since early March!
I expect the first 20s since April 21st when the low fell to 29 degrees and in fact tonight may see the coldest low since way back on April 2nd, though tonight may not get as cold as the 22 degrees recorded that particular morning, I do believe tonight may see temperatures get down to near 26 or 27 degrees, IF and and IF the skies remain crystal clear and winds literally calm, at this still early time of year with these types of temperatures, the conditions need to be near perfect in order to see strong enough radiational cooling.
As for the rest of the Central Belt, town and city centers (Glasgow, Edinburgh as well as Perth and Dundee) should see 28 to 30 degrees (-1 to -2C) with outlying areas down to potentially 25 to 28 degrees (-2 to -4C).
This will be the same for northern England towns and cities stretching all the way south to Manchester, Liverpool and Birmingham. Classic cold spots such as Shap (Cumbria) and Topcliffe (North Yorkshire) as well as other spots in Cumbria Yorkshire and across the Northumbria may see a few 25s show up. Benson, Oxfordshire which has already seen lows as chilly as 26 degrees (-3.5C) may see similar values tonight and or tomorrow night.
As for the central and northern Scottish Highlands, a few complications may be in the mix which may hold night lows higher than one would think. Cloud and wind may hold temps up slightly and both if present in spots, may aid in producing snow showers, some of which may be heavy, even down at lower levels and in villages such as Aboyne and Braemar, Aberdeenshire, Kinbrace and Altnaharra, Sutherland and even down within the Cairngorms down to Aviemore and Dalwhinnie. However most areas should see clouds disspiate over all but coastal areas after dark, and once these clouds clear out and only linger along the west, north and east coasts, temperatures should drop off below freezing with these same spots just mentioned may see the lowest readings in the UK tonight if they don't have cloud or wind. I wouldn't be surprised if we see some snows over the mountains but some spots that see lows by morning down into the low 20s! We may have the odd 21 or 22 degree low within the sheltered Highland Glens, whilst the odd place may see 1 or even two inches of snow!
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
One Big System and Several Other Smaller Weather Features
Joe Lundburg, AccuWeather
Temporary Chill Late This Week
Elliot Abrams, AccuWeather
A Shot of Cold Air Could Lead to Snow Showers
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather
The Extremes of the Day
Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 100 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 18 degrees at Chinook, MT
Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office
High: 58 degrees at Culdrose
Coolest High: 40 degrees at Braemar
Low: 32 degrees at Topcliffe
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 46 degrees
Low: 31 degrees (Frosty)
TODAY'S COND
After a frosty start, the day never really heats up despite plenty of sunshine and this illustrates the "low thickness values" overhead and the very cold air driving south from the Arctic, tonight will be a cold night ahead!
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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