On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
CORE OF COLD BUILDS ACROSS NORTH AMERICAN SIDE OF THE HEMISPHERE, NOT SO MUCH IN EUROPE
AFTER SCANDINAVIA BORE THE BRUNT OF THE POLAR VORTEX LAST MONTH, THE HEART OF NORTH AMERICA APPEARS TO BE SET TO SHIVER BY MID-JANUARY WITH A CROSS POLAR CONNECTION SETTING UP!
As much of western Europe commences 2011 chilly, it's nowehere near as cold as this time last month, it is likely to remain that way through much of the month ahead here in western Europe.
The pattern is changing over the Northern Hemisphere's pole and it appears, though we here in western Europe will remain "chilly" but not really cold, certainly not like it has been, it will however remain either normal or slightly below normal temperaturewise. Scandinavia appears to have eased off with the brutal cold in which a powerhouse vortex of brutally cold air has been persistently rortating over Norway, Sweden and Finland, allowing month-long departures of 12 to 18 below normal which is pretty stunning for an area typically "very cold". That vortex appears to be back over towards the pole and if models are correct, it will link up Siberia's Arctic reservoir with Canada and America's. This channel, better known as a cross-polar flow, appears to be setting up between January 7 through at least 15th and this will allow much of the continent to shiver in severe Arctic cold, centered over the Canadian Priaries and US Great Plains and Midwest, into the Lakes region, likely setting up a severe Lake-effect outbreak which will paste the classic downwind locales with FEET of snow.
Because North America hasa geography of north-south oriented mountains with the Rockies in the west, Appalachains and a series of mountains over eastern Canada and flat plains streatching from the frozen tundra of the far north to Texas, this allows potent, powerful Arctic air to moderate only slightly as it roars south towards the sub-tropical Gulf of Mexico. Geography as well as upper-level patterns allow super cold air to go further south than what would typically be expected.
Canada does be very cold during winter, however, with Siberia's land-lcoked landmass, some 3 times larger than that of North America, it gets MUCH colder than even, typically, the interior of Alaska, the Yukon and Northwest Territories get. In order for -30s or -40s to get as far south as Montana, Utah, Colorado, Wyoming and across the Plains as sometimes as far south as Nebraska, the jet stream must be oritented in such a way that it has a branch flowing from the heart of Siberia ACROSS THE North Pole and into Canada, this super-charges Canada's air mass to get cold-levels than what it in itself can produce naturally, given the normal ingredients. As well as that, the jet must flow nearly north to south into the American plains rapidly, the faster the air is transported from Arctic, down into the mid-latitudal belt, the less the -50 degree air can warm as it enters an environment of longer days, stronger sunlight etc. An unbroken snowfield is vital for maximum cold to penetrate farther south without moderating.
This exact setup appears to be what's heading for the Plains of the US in about 5-10 days from now. How cold could certain places get?
Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota may see several days of whidespread sub-zero highs, some spots perhaps -10s. Lows are likely to drop between -15 and -25 across a broad area with pockets of -30 to -40.
Minneapolis may see multiple days below zero and nights ranging between -15 to -20. Chicago, 2 or 3 days may struggle to reach zero with 5 to 6 nights dropping below zero.
Winds howling from the northwest will make the air feel closer to -30 to -50 in rural areas, whilst Minneapolis may feel closer to -25 to -35. Chicago -15 to -30.
Upper-level pattern across North America for Wednesday, January 12th.
FLOODING TURNS DEADLY IN AUSTRALIA
By Rob Miller, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist
POWERFUL EARTHQUAKE ROCKS CENTRAL CHILE
By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA
From AccuWeather
Light Snow Northern Plains, Upper Midwest
By Jim Andrews, Senior Meteorologist
Snow For Las Vegas and Other Low Elevations
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
Southeast Sunshine To Return, But With a Price to Tag
By Jim Andrews, Senior Meteorologist
Fresh Cold Ignites Lake Effect Snow Machine
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan
WHAT'S REACHING TODAY'S BLOGS?
Two Snow Events and Extremely Cold Weather
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather
Since It's Quiet, Let's Talk Drought
Frank Strait, AccuWeather
THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY
TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER
HIGH: 82 degrees at Melbourne, FL
LOW: -31 degrees at Roosevelt, UT
TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE
HIGH: 46 degrees (7.9C) at Isles of Scilly
COLD HIGH: 32 degrees (-0.2C) at Warcop (Cumbria)
LOW: 25 degrees (-3.9C) at Warcop (Cumbria)
TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE
HIGH: 35 degrees
LOW: 27 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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