Predict Weather: 16 July, 2010

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Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
Mark Vogan's Special Video-Blog recorded from Manchester, England this afternoon!

china, asia
Typhoon Conson hits southern China
BBC Weather

russia, europe
Russian deaths mount as heatwave and vodka mix
BBC Weather

wales, uk, europe
Coast battered in storm hitting Gwynedd and Anglesey
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u.s.a
The Problem with Bank Thermometers
AccuWeather News

your america today forecast
by mark vogan

southwest
After a HOT overnight which both Las Vegas and Phoenic may be lucky to fall to 90 will heat rapisly once that desert sun rises. This folks is what you call a heatwave in the Desert Southwest, before this, it was normal or even a little below in spots, particularly nearer the Pacific where the marine layer has been so stubbornly deep. Ok, your forecast for today is this... Highs today will top around 80-86 degrees with an absent marine layer on those beaches, however right along the coast itself you'll notice a sea breeze kick in, any distance from those beaches inland and there's no relief with highs likely topping around 95 to 98 in Downtown Los Angeles. Head into the coastal Valleys and it will be in the 105-110 range, yes that hot! Inland Empire and east of the mountains in San Diego County as well as the Cenntral Valley and we're looking at highs between 105-112 today. The low deserts (Colorado) is going to see HOTTER than yesterday with pressure heights and this air mass simply growing hotter should see highs I believe in the 117-119 throughout such areas as the Coachella Valley from Palm Springs, through Rancho Mirage, Palm Desert down towards Indio and the Salton Sea. Needles, Laughlin, Bullhead City are likely to eye another 120-degree day! To the north and Baker, in the heart of the Mojave will likely top around 118, Barstow 110 and in both Las Vegas and Phoenix I am looking at a high around 112-114, surrounding suburbs may top nearer 115-117 in the typically hotter locales. As for Death Valley, well look for a high around 125 to even 127 today and if your in Death Valley today, take a LOT of water, spare car parts and tell someone where you intend going as these kinds of temperatures are deadly! Tonight, lows range from upper 60s at the beaches, 70 in Downtown LA, mid-70s in the coastal valleys, Central Valley, Inland Empire and anywhere east of the San Diego coastal range. Desert areas are likely to remain mostly in the low 80s (high desert 70s) and between 90-94 in the major cities of Vegas and Phoenix as well as Death Valley.
northwest
N/A
northern plains
A genrally quite, sunny and warm day with hot temperatures going to surge up the western high plains where highs could be nearing 100 in the western Dakotas. Further east and south, it will be slightly cooler with highs in Minneapolis topping 92, Chicago 93 and St Louis and Kansas City 93. Lows tonight should be in the low to mid-70s throughout.
southern plains
Houston may well be looking at a potential 100 degree day which would be the year's hottest so far. Highs throughout Texas and Oklahoma will likely push the upper 90s in most places with some pockets of 100s, including Houston. Lows tonight should uniformly be in the mid to upper 70s!
southeast & florida
A slightly cooler and stormier day likely throughout much of the region with higher chances of storms further east and as always throughout Florida. Highs generally top around 85-92 degrees today with lows tonight in the low to mid-70s.
northeast & mid-atlantic
A HOT and sunny day in store with highs throughout the I-95 in the 90s today once again, a broken record this summer?
Highs today should top 90 for Boston, 95 in New York and 97 down in DC. Lows tonight should remain in the mid to upper-70s.

Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather

Big Thunderstorms Rumble Through the Northeast Friday Night
AccuWeather

More Severe Thunderstorms for Northern Plains, Great Lakes Saturday
AccuWeather

Beach Goers Under Siege?
AccuWeather

Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia

Friday, July 16, 2010

Yes, I have read the IMD bulletin of the monsoon axis moving northwards,to the Himalayan foothills,and no systems forming in the bay.

But, prefering to stick to my estimate, as published in my blog,early next we

ek the axis will shift southwards, and have embedded systems within, from Sunday.Infact,I would visualise it a bit south today itself, with a low of 998 mb pulling it.See Thai map and make your own judgement,as things such as monsoon axis is always an imaginary thru a trough of lows with wind flow east above and west below.

FNMOC,of the US Navy also estimates,easterlies beginning to sweep the northern plains around this time, confirming the axis shifting south.

The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting quoted model predictions to suggest that the monsoon axis may lie along near-normal position during the next three days.

From this weekend, I maintain of good rains in Gujarat and Rajasthan (refer my blog ).Again,I am encouraged by the he FNMOC forecasts which shows heavy rain over west Madhya Pradesh-east Rajasthan border and then moving further into N.Gujarat/Rajasthan during this period, when,all parts of the State are expected to receive rains during the week ending July 22.

The UAC,(in map) now over M.P. may move westwards, and with embedding in the

monsoon axis, may coincide with the rains in Gujarat/ South Rajasthan, this weekend.

Meanwhile,Tropical Storm Conson is expected to turn north-west hit southwest China coast,around Saturday.

Now, another factor !

After striking land, the wind flows from the Arabian Sea, now cutting across the peninsula, or rather by-passing the Indian lanmass, would get a relieving chance to readjust and give the go-ahead for monsoon flows to revive over the west coast from Tuesday (or approx.3 days after the typhoon hits land).

The flows are now being diverted to feed the Pacific storm.

All this, will coincide for the west coast around Tuesday/Wednessday, when a low is expected to pop up in the bay. The winds will gear up with double momentum, if the sequence really works out together.

Further into the following week, after 25th. we may see the rains dragging further west of India into coastal sindh region as a weak current.

Mumbai will continue to get the showers with bright spells its getting now till Monday. From Tuesday night, expect an increase in rains,upto 75 mms on Wednesday.

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Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan

113 degrees at both Vegas and Phoenix, 120 at Laughlin, 125 at Death Valley yesterday!
ANOTHER HOT ONE FOR SOUTHWEST TODAY