Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
Historical Streak of 90-Degree Days in Reno, Nevada
AccuWeather News
Pakistan Monsoon rains continue
BBC Weather
Muscovites struggle to breathe as acrid smoke grips city
CNN
More Development Possible in the Atlantic Basin
AccuWeather News
your america today forecast
by mark vogan
southeast & florida
A stalled frontal boundary across the heart of the Southeast will enhance storm development this afternoon. Whilst Tennessee, the Carolinas and far north of MS, ALA and GA see lower humidity (north of the front), south of it, highs will warm into the low to mid-90s with dew points in the 70s making it feel close to 110 or higher, sound familiar?. I expect highs generally to top the 90s across the region with plenty of sun, though skies may darken during the PM hours as storms blow up along the stalled front. Florida as always this time of year will see thunderstorms blossom from 12 till 5pm where the sea breezes coverage over central Florida. Highs will warm into the low 90s. Atlanta, High 91, Low 75, New Orleans, High 93, Low 78, Memphis High 95, Low 80, Charlotte High 92, Low 76, Miami Hgh 92, Low 80.
southern plains
As the high becomes squeezed as a front sags southwards down the plains and drops highs from the 100s to 80s across the I-70 to I-44 corridors, thunderstorms are possible today as far south as Dallas with Houston experiencing a moist flow from the southeast.. High today are expected to top around 102 in Dallas with a chance of late day storms, Houston may see late storms also as temps push 94 before the southeast flow ignites. West Central Texas should see sunnier weather with highs topping the mid-90s from San Antonio to Lubbock! Lows tonight will drop to the mid 70s.
northeast & mid-atlantic
A glorious day for the Northeast down to the Mid-Atlantic under high pressure of Canadian origins with low humidity and nice warming into the 80s from DC to New York. A great beach day instore... Highs today should top 86 for DC whilst Philly to New York should warm to a very comfortable 82-84 degrees. Boston will enjoy lots of sun and a high of 76. Lows tonight should fall to near 70 in the DC to New York corridor, Low 60s for Boston and rural areas.
northern plains
A line of storms roll west to east across the Northern Plains today with a first batch this morning and a secondary cold front should swing through tonight bringing a second batch of thunderstorms through the Dakotas and into Minnesota, including Minneapolis. Highs should warm to a rather muggy 90 in the Dakotas whilst we're looking for a high of 87 in Minneapolis and a more pleasant and sunnier 84 in Chicago.. Down along the I-70 corridor and we're looking for sun and highs around 90-92 from Kansas City to St Louis. Lows will fall into the 50s and 60s for the Dakotas, 60s and 70s further south and east.
northwest
Unfortunately as the trough swings through the Northwest, clouds will be thick and stubborn from the coast where highs will only make it into the mid 50s and even 60s just, for Seattle, around 70-72 in Portland under mostly cloudy, even drizzly skies today. East of the mtns and look for sunny periods but skies even here may be cloudy and cool with only 70s to low 80s. Lows will drop into the 50s pretty much everywhere.
southwest
The cool pattern continues to effect coastal California into the coastal valleys and canyons with an enhanced marine influence bringing not only low clouds and fog but also drizzle in spots from the coast to as far inland as Yorba Linda and Corona. Across the Bay Area, some inland areas are also experiencing lows in the 50s and light drizzle. By day highs are topping the 60s on the beach, 70s for LA whilst down in San Diego and up in San Francisco it's merely warming at all with clouds struggling to burn off by lunchtime with highs only into the upper 60s. Coastal valleys will see mid-morning burnoff with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s. Riverside will see mid-90s with Lancaster and Palmdale also warming to only the low 90s. The deserts will see 100s but mostly in the low deserts with Palm Springs warming to near 107. Places like Barstow will only warm to around 98. Baker 106. Death Valley should warm to near 115 whilst Las Vegas and Phoenix sees a mere 100-102. Tonight lows range from the foggy 50s at the coast to downtown LA as well as SF and SD. 60s for coastal valleys and 70s for the deserts. Even Vegas and Phoenix may see lows fall into the upper 70s to around 80.
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
VIDEO: Joe Bastardi's Winter Forecast
AccuWeather
Severe Weather Targets Upper Midwest into Tonight
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
Major Heat to Return with a Vengeance
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
MOSCOW: HELL ON EARTH? A SERIES OF NATURAL EVENTS OR GLOBAL WARMING?
This summer, like (likely much worse) than last winter has been one of extremes! Is it the result of earth's "changing" climate which happens every few decades, even few hundred years? The warm AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the second strongest El Nino on record? The sharp cooling and warming within a weak Cold PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)? Whilst Scotland and northern England as well as north Wales and most of Ireland endure yet another relatively gloomy mid-point of summer with the past 4-6 weeks of persistent unsettled weather thanks to a large trough that's been sat parked over us, on either side of that trough lies powerful high pressure cells, likely charged by an El Nino warming.
Moscow's Hell
Fierce heat and some 600 wildfires raging throughout central and western Russia is almost providing an armagedon appearance throughout Russia's capital and it must be scary to be there right now.. Even like living day after day within a desert sandstorm, only it's air filled with smoke, fumes from vehicles which can't escape, other chemicals and pollutants as well as near desert-like heat.
I must ask the question however... Is this global warming? My theory is that this summer's conditions across this part of the world has been caused by the pattern during winter and spring, the abnormally dry conditions, created by El Nino during the winter and remember, it provided the same region with what was a cold, harsh Moscow winter and indeed Siberia endured their worst winter on record.. The combination of a large and intensifying high which started off over the UK and Western Europe from May through late June, the high high intensified and spread out, a trough began to grow and intensify over the North Atlantic and ultimately this trough began migrating east, southeast into Scotland, bringing an end to the dry, warm and sunny weather, meanwhile the high stood firm with 100s from Central Spain to France and across Germany, Mid-90s were felt in the Netherlands, upper 90s in Poland. At this point, Moscow was comfortable but indeed very dry and becoming very warm as the central Europe ridge began to spread over Western Russia. As we entered July, the trough dropped southeast, pushing the 90s and 100s east and the trough replaced the upper air flow from the Sahara into Europe more out of the NW, straight from the North Atlantic and Scotland, bringing mere 60s, 70s and at best low 80s to places in interior Europe that was sweltering. By the last couple of weeks of July, the trough was covering much of Europe in cool, unsettled weather. That core of heat had now been pushed all the way across to the Ukraine and Centrak Russia. THE STAGE WAS SET! One must remember that for Moscow to see 100s, we can't simply focus on the HIGH but more it's interaction with the trough to the west and the high's position. Whilst the core sat closely overhead to Moscow, mid-90s were being endured.. but it was only when the core was pushed further east by what to me was the DOMINANT TROUGH... The trough being the driver here! The intensity of the trough over Europe produced a strong push of SUPER HOT air straight from the deserts of the Middle East directly north into Moscow. The winds blowing around the high and the low was perfect. The drought over Russia helped keep the high and the warmth aloft hotter than normal and also, another key I believe in all this is the fact the Kuwait, Iraq, even Saudi Arabia were reported to have recieved their hottest reading's in history. THE AIR OVER THE DESERTS WAS PRIMED TO PERFECTION, THEN THE AIR PATTERN ALIGNED PERFECTLY FOR 100 DEGREE HEAT FOR MOSCOW!
The magnitude of both duration of 90s by day, with one or two topped 100 and sweltering nights in the mid-70s is harnessing these fires. These fires are driven by the intense heat, not the other way around!!
Devastating India and Pakistan Monsoon
Of course whilst the troughs and ridges dominate regions for lengthy time periods, the locked pattern has resulted in one of the most devastating monsoon seasons on record with Pakistan and portions of northern India enduring massive flooding and some 1,600 deaths across Pakistan and effecting an astonishing 12 million people. I believe it's the type of pattern this summer globally and it's part thanks to a strong El Nino which has markedly warmed the upper atmosphere, giving extra enhancement to high's and these high's which are stronger and therefore can hold ground easier and has the power to re-route surrounding weather systems. Enhancement of the Asian monsoon thanks to all the warmth across the hemisphere has aided in bringing such devastation, remember on the heels of an extraordinarily hot period from Feb through June!
Searing US Summer of 2010
The US of course has endured likely one of it's hottest on record from the Front Range eastwards. Though we have seen highs reach their warmest levels in 10 to 20 years over the Eastern Seaboard, in all honesty the actual numbers over the South is not completely unusual, HOWEVER, the amount of days measuring 5-10, even 15 degrees above normal in the hottest time of year is certainly something to behold and likely many locations, even states throughout the South are likely to have endured either the warmest July on record or warmest summer overall as the upper 90s to low 100s has been persistent as the high has been strong and unmovable this summer... Interestingly the West Coast has endured one of, if not thee coolest summer on record. Often you find that when you've a super high covering a large portion of one given area and when it's been as persistent as it has east of the Rockies, you find there must be a trough somewhere east or west of the ridge, that trough has been ruled by the ridge to it's east, stuck in place and can't go anywhere other than be stuck on the West Coast, therefore folks all the way down the California coast has endured a gloomy, cool and dissapointing summer, at the same time folks across the Plains and East will likely be glad to see fall arrive this year, in saying that I do think that we're going to perhaps see places such as San Diego and L.A. enjoy summer during winter. It may be a complete opposite this winter as warmth spreads acrosssouthern California (watch out for the 80s, 90s perhaps the odd 100) whilst very cold air and a large trough sets up over the heart of the US during Dec, Jan and Feb.
So, is this global warming or natural variability?
Personally I believe that over time, we see the planet's atmosphere react to ocean cycles and at this time the variation in SST's globally and the wild fluctuations between strong La Nina's and El Nino's are what's causing the wild weather and extremes! Back in the 1930s I read of extreme heat in the US (1936 was and still is the warmest July on record for the US), during exceptional periods of heat and drought, we saw in between winters which produced some of the coldest temperatures ever across the US... WILD SWINGS BETWEEN WARMTH AND COLD, Similar to 2010? Bare in mind, I do see this winter being severe for central Europe (including Moscow) as well as across the heart of North America. Alaska may see one of their worst winter's on record.... The Atlantic is still very warm and the Pacific cooling rapidly with the onset of the Las Nina, this will have a profound effect this winter where those troughs of Arctic air set up. From central Alaska to the Ohio Valley, watch out! One of the worst winters on record may occur!!!!
So, I believe we're talking natural and not global warming but again, this is my own personal view, I may be very wrong. I also believe that what Moscow is enduring now, has happened before, just not in our lifetime, before record's were kept!
Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia
Saturday, August 07, 2010
The low, has literally "whizzed" past,and thru the central regions, and by saturday night, is already over south Rajasthan/Gujarat ! Surprised at its super speed.Yes, I did mention it will whizz thru, but that was supposed to reach Rajasthan as per my assumption by Sunday!
Overnite rains were particularly heavy in Marathwada. The chief amounts of heavy rains in the region as on Saturday morning in cms: Parbhani-17, Kinwat, Hingoli 16 each, ,Kalamnuri-15, Mahur-14, Bhokar, Audha-13 each, Sengaon-12, Nanded, Umari, Ardhapur-11 each, Bhadgaon, Basmat-9 each,
Yeola,Loha-7 each, Billoli-6, Kopargaon, Igatpuri, Nandgaon, Gaganbawda, Sillod, Kannad, Soegaon, Khandar, Ahmedpur-5 each,
Saturday daytime, was good, weather wise and rainfall wise for Marathwada and western Vidharbha regions. Rainfall throughout the day was fai
rly good, ranging from 20-50 mms in various cities.
But the day was super cool ! 7c below normal at 22c (day's max) at Aurangabad and Jalna. In Western Vidharbha too, it was cool at 21.9c in the day at Washim and Yeotmal was 22c. all almost 5-7c below. Shirdi was a pleasant 22.7c.
With the system moving fast, I see it going west into Pakistan by Sunday itself. And carrying alongwith it all its clouding. Now? Total decrease in rainfall in the rear of the system!
Regions which have benefited from this wet wave can now breathe a respite from rains, and regions, such as the southern peninsula areas, will remain in "status Quo". (sorry for repeating this term :))
Could even mean lesser rainfall in the already deficit hilly areas of Karnataka. I see a drier central and southern peninsula next week.
Personally seeing a low around the 13th. in the bay. But should be followed daily .
Mumbai got 2 mms of rain on Friday, the last of the "rest" day !
On Saturday, it has rained 37 mms during the day till 6 pm readings.But as i mentioned in yesterday's forecast, I do not see much in this system and would continue the same forecast for Sunday as yesterday's. Rain decreasing on Sunday with around 25 mms of rain.Monday thru wednesday will be days with little rainfall for Mumbai, with sunny intervals.
International Weather News:
This week's hottest temperature was 47.8c at Death Valley, California.
This week's coldest temperature was, minus 47.8c at Russia's Vostok Antarctic research station.
In Nicosia, Cyprus, the temperature of 45.6C, on the 1st. of August 2010, was the highest recorded since the beginning of last century, the second highest was 44.4C, recorded in Nicosia on August 8, 1956. The maximum temperature in Nicosia on Sunday was 8.4C higher than normal while minimum temperature reached 29C, 7C higher than normal.
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
NEQ Friday Review, V.14
The Northeast Quadrant
Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 112 degrees at Death Valley, CA
Low: 33 degrees at Truckee, CA
Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office
High: 75 degrees at Writtle
Low: 48 degrees at Strathallan
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 71 degrees
Low: 57 degrees
TODAY'S COND
Warmest day in weeks, remained dry and pleasant!
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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