14 November, 2010

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Today's Top Weather Stories
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan

A VERY COLD PATTERN LOOMS FOR BOTH EUROPE AND USA
Classic "Greenland block" is set to plunge both sides of the pond into the freezer by November 25th!

If this current 850mb geopotential height map by the ECMWF above and below was to prove correct, this would be a VERY COLD, nasty pattern for the UK and western Europe around the 25th with widespread accummulating snowfall and a direct discharge of potent Arctic air driving in on the heels of the snow right over the British Isles off Scandinavia. That of course would be enough to present multiple days below freezing and nights that would send temps into the tank, say -7C or colder in the major cities of Glasgow, Edinburgh, Manchester, York etc and the Highlands would likely fall easily below -10C! This indeed isn't out of the realm of possibily despite this model looking some 20 days into the future. The NAO (north atlantic oscillation) is expected to transition to negative in the coming week to 10-days and thus would build a warm pool northwards from the central Atlantic northwards up over Greenland. In doing so, this then discharges Arctic air southwards on either side of that high pressure cell over Greenland (this is why it's called a Greenland Block). Of course other factors play into where exactly the cold air goes. The actual ridge doesn't always form directly over Greenland, nor does there always be potent, mature Arctic air to tap. However in this case, models suggest a ridge to form perfectly over Greenland's vast landmass, therefore this would suggest an avenue of Arctic air to plunge down over the British Isles, as well as that, the Arctic air has had time to build since the AO (arctic oscillation) and NAO have both been neutral if not positive and when that occurs, the air flow is been generally zonal, thus both the USA and Britain have seen a weather pattern prodominantly off the Pacific and Atlantic, keeping us and our American friends relatively mild. In keeping both sides of the pond relatively mild, it allows the Arctic air to concentrate itself over the pole, it's origin. When early season arctic air isn't stretched out and therefore takes away some of it's energy, it can bundle and build.. In building, it means once discharged, areas that are in the firing line of it's wrath tends to see harsher cold... I believe both ourselves here in western Europe and much of central and eastern America and Canada, should see a tough period of winter from November 20 or 25th and should take us into December cold and snowy across potentially a large area. A large chunk of both North America and western Europe may have snow cover into mid-December and may look a lot like what we saw in the close of December a year ago.

West-central Russia to central Turkey likely to bear brunt of "worst of winter" this year!
See Weather Talk below

Scottish ski season gets under way
BBC

Heavy Rain Causes Flooding in Brussels
AccuWeather News

Caribbean Bears Watching for Tropical Development
AccuWeather News

Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather

Cold Blast from Northern Rockies to Northeast This Week
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist




Rocky Mountain Snowfall into Monday
By Jim Andrews, Senior Meteorologist

Northeast Pleasant Streak Coming to an End
By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
 
MY WINTER FORECAST, TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT EUROPE
Winter to be front-loaded for UK, France, Spain, Holland, Belgium, Germany, Poland etc whilst from around New Year and through January the west relaxes and then it will be Turkey, Ukraine, Bulgaria and surrounding nations that will fight worst of winter's wrath!
 
Today I dedicate my "Weather Talk" segment to my eastern Europe and west Asia readers and discuss what winter may be like for you folks.
 
While I believe winter will start early, fast and furious over "western" Europe and eastern North America with the potential for a repeat of last winter's "harshest conditions" between Dec 1 through January 5, that time frame will give folks stretching from Moscow to Istanbul time to prepare for what may end up being one of the worst blasts of snow and cold in many years between January 1 and February 1. Then a relaxation period afterwards in which winter's nastiness of snow and cold returns to the UK, the low countries and the Baltic nations as well as Scandinavia with frequent snows and waves of Arctic cold which could stretch well into March or even April.
 
The key this winter is that I believe every region of Europe and across Asia will see periods of harsh, brutal winter weather which should see interior portions of both continents experience temperatures into the -30 to -50C range for a time and widespread snow cover which will help those Arctic high's which should visit much of the northern hemisphere landmass drive temperatures to the lowest values seen last year and perhaps values in some spots since the late 1970s. Whilst eastern Europe, including Turkey which got off lightly last year may find themselves paying the price this winter with a longer spell of winter than what the western half of Europe may see. For folks in the UK and the western mainland, the worst of winter's conditions may only last 2-3 weeks with short returning blasts after February commences whilst in a long stretching from Moscow to Istandbul, the worst winter conditions may stertch more like 4-6 weeks.
 
Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia
 

Monday, November 15, 2010

Very heavy thunderstiorms were reported today, especially from western Mah. As Ashish, Shiraz and Junaid report, the rains were widespread all over the region.
region. (See maps).



Yesterday, Jalgaon had very heavy rainfall of 84 mms.


I would attribute this continuing phenomena to the presently prevailing moisture inflow since the remnant low barged into saurashtra. Moisture is still hanging around due to the "sticky" UAC in the



Moisture still precipitates rains due to the Upper Troposphere Humidity, enriched by the system, and the favourable lifting index in the region is causing violent thunderstorms.(Map). This pushes the cumulus clouds to penetrate the upper atmosphere, sometimes up to 40,000 feet, and result in 2 layer lightnings within a cloud, and from cloud to ground.


On penetrating the upper atmosphere, these thunderclouds form anvils, and turn into cirrus clouds, which with the jet stream in the upper most layer of the atmosphere, move towards the west (along with the jet stream), and which is visible over the sky of Mumbai.

See our partner's blog HERE for great in-depth weather info for India, the sub-continent as well as across the world!!

What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
 
Major Snow Accumulations for Ski Country this Week
Brett Anderson, Canada Expert, Canada

The Extremes of the Day

Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office

High: 51 degrees at Langdon Bay (Kent)
Cold High: 36 degrees at St Angelo
Low: 26 degrees at Kinbrace (Sutherland)


Today's Extremes here at my house


High: 44 degrees
Low: 31 degrees


TODAY'S CONDITIONS
Frost arrived early in the evening then clouds rolled in bumping temps into the mid-30s for much of the overnight. The day saw AM clouds but sunshine for the afternoon.

Thanks for reading.
-Mark