On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
NOTE: SEE WEATHER TALK BELOW FOR INTERESTING FACTS, FIGURES AND THOUGHTS ON THE WEATHER FOR UK THE REST OF DECEMBER 2010... A TIP: GRAB YOUR LONG-JOHNS AND KEEP YOUR HAT, SCARF AND GLOVES HANDY!
Coldest Air Sweeps of season sweeps in on backside of historic blizzard, set to get even colder!
Vikings-Giants to play in Detroit Monday night
Star Tribune
Snow Winds Down As Temperatures Drop
WCCO TV
Hello, winter: Snow, wind, cold on today's agenda
The Chicago Tribune
Forecast for Minneapolis, Courtesy of WCCO TV
Today's Weather across America
From AccuWeather
A good Samaritan tries to help free a woman's car from the snow on University Avenue as a winter storm continues in St. Paul, Minn., Saturday, Dec. 11, 2010. The storm formed in the Rocky Mountains on Friday and then swept into northern Nebraska and Iowa overnight. By Saturday morning, heavy snow and strong winds had created blizzard conditions across eastern South Dakota, northwestern Iowa and southwestern Minnesota, and the storm was moving east into Minnesota's Twin Cities and western Wisconsin. (AP Photo/Ann Heisenfelt)
Fierce Cold Gripping Midwest, will Head East
By Heather Buchman, Meteorologist
Minneapolis Metrodome Roof Collapses Under Heavy Snow
By Vickie Frantz, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
Flash Freeze Hitting Ohio, East is Next Up
By Heather Buchman, Meteorologist
Mudslide Shuts Down Amtrak's Washington-Oregon Route
By Vickie Frantz, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
Weather Talk
By Mark Vogan
This is for today! Bare in mind, it looks like there's warmer air over us, yet my high here was 31 degrees (below freezing)
This is for Wednesday, note the very cold air covering much of Europe and the western edge slides into the southern UK, but most importantly, cast your eyes to the blue showing up at the top of the map!
Well, well, well, this is for Thursday, that little bit of blue on the Wednesday map is not only colder than anything i've seen on the ECMWF so far this season but it's heading directly southwards towards us! Be prepared!
This is for Friday! If that holds true, It may be near the all-time record for Britain come this weekend as that leading edge is likely to blanket much of Britain Wednesday through Thursday and the core of cold will sit over that blanket Friday and through the weekend. Highs of -6 to -10c may effect many rural areas north to south and nights that push -15 to -25C at night.
All the above grahpics courtesy of the ECMWF site
Comparison between the cold in late December 1995 verses cold of December 2010
GLASGOW: DECEMBER 95, COLDEST HI 15F, COLDEST LOW -3F ( -7.2 BELOW NORM FOR MONTH)
DECEMBER 10, COLDEST HI 18F, COLDEST LOW 7F (-13.9 BELOW NORMAL SO FAR)
EDINBURGH: DECEMBER 95, COLDEST HI 26F, COLDEST LOW 6F (-4.8 BELOW NORM FOR THE MONTH)
DECEMBER 10, COLDEST HI 19F COLDEST LOW 3F (-14.5 BELOW NORMAL SO FAR)
MANCHESTER: DECEMBER 95, COLDEST HI 24F, COLDEST LOW 10F (-4.4 BELOW NORM FOR MONTH)
DECEMBER 10, COLDEST HI 28F, COLDEST LOW 8F (-12.2 BELOW NORMAL SO FAR)
BIRMINGHAM: DECEMBER 95, COLDEST HI 26F, COLDEST LOW 18F (-5.2 BELOW NORM FOR MONTH)
DECEMBER 10, COLDEST HI 27F, COLDEST LOW 10F (-10.9F BELOW NORM SO FAR)
LONDON GATWICK: DEC 95, COLDEST HI 34F, COLDEST LOW 23F (-1.8 BELOW NORM FOR THE MONTH)
DEC 10, COLDEST HI 30F, COLDEST LOW 12F (-7.8 BELOW NORMAL SO FAR)
FIGURES COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER PRO
Winter's of the 1980s, mid-1990s saw the fall of many cold records. Both periods were in the 'Global Warming' era but likely low Solar activity and mega volcanic blasts was the cause, what about the increasingly cold winter's of the late 2000s?
The June 12, 1991 eruption column from Mount Pinatubo taken from Clark Air Base. U.S. Geological Survey Photograph taken on June 12, 1991, by Richard P. Hoblitt.
Photo Courtesy of Wikipedia
I have closen the late December 1995 cold period as a comparison to this past week of exceptionally cold weather that has crippled ALL, not some of the UK. The cold of late December 1995 is a good comparison not only because we saw extreme cold which as you'll notice from the figures shown below, that the worst cold was experienced the further north in the UK you go, whereas this year it was more widespread. The interestingly things about the severe cold of late 1995 was that is was in the heart of the "modern warm period" or better known as global warming. So with 1998 the apparent warmest year on record globally, why did Glasgow recieve it's coldest low in recorded history and Scotland as well as the UK as a whole tie the lowest reading on record in the closing days of 1995 just 3 short years before the warmest year on record?
I blame an increase in volcanic activity with the massive eruption of Mount Pinatubo, Philippines in 1991 which lead to unusually severe cold and cold winter's for both North America as well as Europe in the "mid-90s". 1994, 1995 and 1996 saw 3 years of unusual cold over much of the Northern Hemisphere with even summers which saw unusual and widespread cold.
Mount St Helens in Washington state erupted in 1980, spread ash across North America with reports of ash falling in the streets of New York City.
**Great Britain edured it's coldest December on record in 1981 and some of the coldest readings were reported in many areas of North America, Europe and across the world in the winter's after St Helen's blew.
Duration of cold during winter may suggest the end of the modern warm era is approaching and not just a blip.
So what about the late 2000s? It seems things have gotten unusually cold and what's more striking is that just a few years ago, we saw a record or near record warm winter in 2007-08. The mid-2000s were warm but all of a sudden it's gotten darn cold. Is it increased volcanic activity? Low solar activity? An end to global warming perhaps?
I do believe we're still within the "modern warm period" but it's waning as the Pacific has become markedly colder since 2007, there has been an increase in volcanic activity which may well be enhancing the "large-scale blocking pattern over the high latitudes and the effects of the past 2-3 years of volcanoes going off may be creating more impact to winter, rather than summer with warming of the stratosphere. However, whilst the sun is still extremely quiet and though it's not as quiet as perhaps it was this time last year, my theory is that the actual strength of the cold over the pole is increased because of the sun and the volcanoes are what is making Greenland warmer and North America, Europe and east Asia colder.
As Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather in State College, Pa, one of the best in the business has pointed out his "triple crown of cooling" theory and that appears to be showing some truth. The low solar constant, increased volcanic activity and the fact that according to earth's temperature timeline, we should be nearing the end of the "modern warm period". If the sun remains low as many solar scientists believe it will and volcanoes keep increasing their activity which many volcanologists believe will happen as the Atlantic is set to return to a cold mode within the next 5-10 years, then it's looking a lot like a mini ice-age.... This folks is no coincidence that we're seeing this cold here in the UK as well as the US and other parts of the world. Just look at the dates of those records that are falling across the world now and through the rest of this winter.. Each and every date that appears, tells us a story. The question is, do we want to believe the story that it's telling us?
The winter's frigid start
By Meteo Group UK
10.12.2010 14:07
The extremely cold end to autumn and start of winter now has some figures attached to it.
One of the most useful climatological yardsticks is the Central England Temperature (CET), which represents the average temperature of the Midlands.
It is so useful for comparison purposes because its records stretch back to 1659, making it the longest unbroken series of monthly temperature observations anywhere in the world. This is in large part due to the tireless work of Professor Gordon Manley in the 1950s, and more recent maintenance separately by the climatologist Philip Eden and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.
The figures reveal a CET of -1.9 degrees Celsius for the first week of winter, 1 to 7 December 2010, making it the coldest opening week since 1879.
Given that the temporary milder interlude this weekend will quickly be chased away by a return of severe cold through next week, it is possible that the month as a whole will rank close to some of the coldest Decembers on record.
The coldest month ever by CET was January 1795, with a mean temperature of -3.1 degrees Celsius.
By: Stephen Davenport
Vagaries of the Weather
India & Sub-Continental Asia Weather
By Rajesh Kapadia
Gore Effect on Steroids: Six straight days of record low temperatures during COP16 in Cancun Mexico.
"The irony, it burns. Do you think maybe Gaia is trying to send the U.N. and the delegates a message? One record low was funny, three in a row was hilarious, a new record low for the month of December was ROFL, but now six straight days of record lows during the U.N. COP16 Global Warming conference? That’s galactically inconvenient. The whole month so far has averaged below normal": (Anthony Watts).
And Cancun, Mexico, has touched 10c, a record on 8th. Dec.2010.
Last year during Copenhagen, it was said they need to do their theatre in July. It is too risky in the winter.It is very difficult to ignore this reality.
And this dew point map in Cancun.Interesting how low the dew point is during this spell. Once again water vapor soundly trumps CO2 -:)
I’m starting to believe in this Gaia theory. Seems like she does the opposite of whatever the “experts” predict. Coincidence? Hmmm.
And finally, on a lighter note, a superb Limerick by someone:
Down at the shindig in Mex
Lookin’ forward to sand surf and sex
The delegate’s jaws dropped
When Cancun copped
The coolest of Al Gore Effects
NOTE FROM MARK VOGAN
I am honored to be linked in partnership with "Vagaries of the Weather", Mr Kapadia who created and provides the great info, graphics etc, has by far the best weather blog and provider of detailed and professional weather annalysis coming out of south Asia today, dedicated to not only local weather from the Mumbai area, but the continent as well as the world over.
What's Reaching Today's Blogs?
Weather Observing & More on the Way
Paul Douglas Weather Column, WeatherNation Meteorologist and Founder
The Extremes of the Day
Today's US Extremes
Courtesy of AccuWeather
High: 91 degrees at San Pasqual Valley, CA
Low: -27 degrees at International Falls, MN
Today's UK Extremes
Courtesy of the Met Office
High: 49 degrees (9.3C) at Monks Wood (Cambridgeshire)
Cold High: 34 degrees (1.1C) at Carlisle (Cumbria)
Low: 19 degrees (-7C) at Topcliffe (Yorkshire)
Today's Extremes here at my house
High: 31 degrees
Low: 22 degrees
TODAY'S CONDITIONS
Snowcover: 2 inches
A return to much cooler air as the Arctic air we had over us last week and pushed east has pushed back west. Britain sits beneath the cross-roads of both cold Arctic air and mild Atlantic air. That return to the same air that brought us 3 degree lows and 20 degree highs, though it's the tail end, managed to bring us another severe frost overnight. That frost hasn't left all day, holding our high to 31, bagging yet another sub-freezing day and adding another to an ever lengthening list. With temps back into the low 20s already as of 5pm and skies remain clear and winds light, the little covering of snow remains and will help a return to the teens overnight tonight. It may fall to 16 degrees if conditions remain the same.
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
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