Japan Quake, Tropical Storm Emily Possibly Forming

Coming Up This Monday (August 1st)
MY PRELIMINARY UK-EUROPE WINTER FORECAST 2011-2012
(INCLUDES EXCLUSIVE VIDEO FROM THE BRITISH ICEBOX OF ALTNAHARRA IN SCOTLAND'S FAR NORTH)

See the blog Facebook page and click 'like' for latest updates and info

In Today's Blog

#BRITISH ISLES-EUROPE
Warm, Summerlike Week Ahead for UK, Sunniest in South where highs could top 30C in London

#USA
Temperatures on the rise over Southern Plains for start of new workweek

#INDIA-SUB-CONT
Latest India-Sub-Continental Weather By Rajesh Kapadia

In Today's News

Magnitude-6.4 earthquake hits off Japan
CNN

Strong earthquake jolts northeastern Japan
CBS NEWS

Dallas area's triple-digit temperature streak expected to become second longest today
DALLAS NEWS

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 111° at Phoenix, AZ
LOW: 29° at West Yellowstone, MT

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 80° (26.8°C) at Sutton Bonington (Nottinghamshire)
LOW: 37° (3°C) at Santon Downham (Suffolk)

TODAY'S EXTREM,ES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 66°
LOW: 54°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

Japan Quake, Tropical Storm Emily Possibly Forming

Coming Up This Monday (August 1st)
MY PRELIMINARY UK-EUROPE WINTER FORECAST 2011-2012
(INCLUDES EXCLUSIVE VIDEO FROM THE BRITISH ICEBOX OF ALTNAHARRA IN SCOTLAND'S FAR NORTH)

See the blog Facebook page and click 'like' for latest updates and info

In Today's Blog

#BRITISH ISLES-EUROPE
Warm, Summerlike Week Ahead for UK, Sunniest in South where highs could top 30C in London

#USA
Temperatures on the rise over Southern Plains for start of new workweek

#INDIA-SUB-CONT
Latest India-Sub-Continental Weather By Rajesh Kapadia

In Today's News

Magnitude-6.4 earthquake hits off Japan
CNN

Strong earthquake jolts northeastern Japan
CBS NEWS

Dallas area's triple-digit temperature streak expected to become second longest today
DALLAS NEWS

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 111° at Phoenix, AZ
LOW: 29° at West Yellowstone, MT

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 80° (26.8°C) at Sutton Bonington (Nottinghamshire)
LOW: 37° (3°C) at Santon Downham (Suffolk)

TODAY'S EXTREM,ES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 66°
LOW: 54°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

Amazing Videos of a Strong Tornado in Russia

The above video pulls together several pieces of footage that look like something you would see in "tornado alley" (except for the architecture, of course). The strong tornado shown in the videos took place on Sunday, 7-31-11 in Blagoveshchensk, Russia.  That city is located in the far southeast part of Russia, near the border with China (see map below).  From the power flashes to airborne debris, this is a rare sight for this region - and even more so to have the event captured on video!

According to media reports (and confirmed by parts of the video), damage is widespread and significant across the city of just over 200,000 people, where a state of emergency has been declared.  Amazingly, only 1 person is being reported as dead so far, with "dozens" injured.  Based on the video, I fear that the death toll may rise as further damaged structures are examined.

Significant tornadoes are relatively rare in Russia.  In June 1904, at least 30 people were killed when two tornadoes moved through the eastern part of Moscow.  At least three powerful tornadoes killed more than 400 people in Belyanitsky, Ivanovo and Balino in western Russia in June of 1984.  In recent years, a weak tornado struck eastern Moscow on June 4, 2009, causing widespread damage (see photo below) but thankfully no fatalities:

I'll be sure to update this post with damage photos and/or video on this most recent event as they become available...

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Likely Depression Soon to be "Emily"

The area of disturbed weather now 650 miles East of the Windward Islands that I first told you about yesterday appears to have organized into a Tropical Depression (even though it hasn't been "officially" classified as such by the National Hurricane Center - NHC).  Still dubbed "Invest 91" at this time, the system is shown within the yellow circled area on the recent satellite image below:

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to fly into the system later today.  It appears as though the NHC is going to wait for that data before reclassifying the system to a Depression or perhaps right into Tropical Storm Emily.

Conditions are favorable for rather rapid development of this system over the coming few days, with most computer models forecasting the system to approach Puerto Rico by Wednesday evening.  The latest computer model composite tracks are shown below:

We'll have more on this system after the Hurricane Hunter data come in later this afternoon...

If you enjoy reading 'The Original Weather Blog', please be sure to "like" our facebook page!

South Korea Record Flooding, Dissapointing Tropical Storm Don, Continued 100s for OKC & Dallas, Much of UK Enjoying Warm, Summery Weekend

Coming Up This Monday (August 1st)
MY PRELIMINARY UK-EUROPE WINTER FORECAST 2011-2012
(INCLUDES EXCLUSIVE VIDEO FROM THE BRITISH ICEBOX OF ALTNAHARRA IN SCOTLAND'S FAR NORTH)

See the blog Facebook page and click 'like' for latest updates and info

In Today's Blog

#BRITISH ISLES-EUROPE
Pleasantly Warm across much of the UK this weekend

#USA
Temperatures on the rise over Southern Plains for start of new workweek

#INDIA-SUB-CONT
Latest India-Sub-Continental Asia Weather By Rajesh Kapadia

In Today's News

NEW: Earthquake jolts north-east Japan - no tsunami warning
BBC



Dozens killed in South Korea floods, landslides
BLOOMBURG

Tropical Storm Don packs little punch
CNN



Russia Enduring Another Triple-Digit Heat Wave
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Drought Having Impact On North Texas Trees
CBS DALLAS

Dallas Forecast from CBS

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

YESTERDAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 112° at Borrego Springs, CA
LOW: 29° at Stanley, ID

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 73° (22.7°C) at Chivenor (Devon)
LOW: 34 (0.9°C) at Tulloch Bridge (Highland)

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 71°
LOW: 54°

TODAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 110° at Needles, CA
LOW: 32° at West Yellowstone, MT

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 75° (23.9°C) at Crosby (Merseyside)
LOW: 38° (3.6°C) at Tulloch Bridge (Highland)

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 72°
LOW: 47°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

South Korea Record Flooding, Dissapointing Tropical Storm Don, Continued 100s for OKC & Dallas, Much of UK Enjoying Warm, Summery Weekend

Coming Up This Monday (August 1st)
MY PRELIMINARY UK-EUROPE WINTER FORECAST 2011-2012
(INCLUDES EXCLUSIVE VIDEO FROM THE BRITISH ICEBOX OF ALTNAHARRA IN SCOTLAND'S FAR NORTH)

See the blog Facebook page and click 'like' for latest updates and info

In Today's Blog

#BRITISH ISLES-EUROPE
Pleasantly Warm across much of the UK this weekend

#USA
Temperatures on the rise over Southern Plains for start of new workweek

#INDIA-SUB-CONT
Latest India-Sub-Continental Asia Weather By Rajesh Kapadia

In Today's News

NEW: Earthquake jolts north-east Japan - no tsunami warning
BBC



Dozens killed in South Korea floods, landslides
BLOOMBURG

Tropical Storm Don packs little punch
CNN



Russia Enduring Another Triple-Digit Heat Wave
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Drought Having Impact On North Texas Trees
CBS DALLAS

Dallas Forecast from CBS

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

YESTERDAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 112° at Borrego Springs, CA
LOW: 29° at Stanley, ID

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 73° (22.7°C) at Chivenor (Devon)
LOW: 34 (0.9°C) at Tulloch Bridge (Highland)

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 71°
LOW: 54°

TODAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 110° at Needles, CA
LOW: 32° at West Yellowstone, MT

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 75° (23.9°C) at Crosby (Merseyside)
LOW: 38° (3.6°C) at Tulloch Bridge (Highland)

TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 72°
LOW: 47°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark

Future "Emily" Developing in Atlantic...

A large area of low pressure continues to organize fairly rapidly about 900 miles East of the Windward Islands this morning. This system has been dubbed "Invest 91L" by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).  Based on its organization and development over the past 12-24 hours, I would expect this system to be upgraded to either a Tropical Depression, or perhaps right into Tropical Storm status before the weekend is over.  If this system becomes a named storm this weekend, it would be called "Emily".

Computer forecast models generally take this system on a West / Northwesterly track over the next few days:

Interests across the central Tropical Atlantic, including Puerto Rico, should keep a close eye on the development and progression of this system in the coming days... 





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Don - The "Tropical Storm" that Wasn't....

The above visible satellite image shows the remains of Don near Laredo, TX at 10am CDT. The system fell apart very rapidly literally as it came on shore yesterday evening along the Texas coast South of Corpus Christi.  The radar image below shows what little rain is even left in association with the system this morning:

The rapid demise of Don was a real disappointment (and one of fastest perhaps in history).  As you can't help but know if you read this blog very often, this region is in an extreme drought, and hopes were high that Don would help alleviate some of that pain.

So, what went wrong with Don?  Waters in the Gulf of Mexico were plenty warm enough to support further growth and intensification, but conditions above the surface level were less than ideal.  Dry air was being filtered into the Western edge of the system by a layer of Northerly winds several thousand feet off of the surface.  This effectively limited the development of Don before he made landfall, and once that landfall was made on the semi-arid (thanks to the drought) shores of South Padre Island, the system diminished rapidly.

The image below shows the life cycle of Don from Google Earth.  The first 3 storm icons are wrong - they should be green "Tropical Storm" icons like most of the rest (Don was "born" a Tropical Storm - he was never initially classified as a Tropical Depression).  I have added the 4pm CDT position notations and the points at which there was any change in wind speed:

Oh well... better luck next time, Texas.  This was a great opportunity to get some decent rain without a lot of potential wind damage - and it sure is sad to see such an opportunity lost...

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Center of Tropical Storm Don Making Landfall on South Padre Island, TX

At 7:34pm, the center of Tropical Storm Don was making landfall on South Padre Island, TX, about 37 miles South of Corpus Christi, or 32 miles Southeast of Kingsville.









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Center of Don Approaching Coastline...

The above image was just taken from the Corpus Christi radar, and shows the center of Don (red circled area) about 7 miles offshore of Padre Island.  It appears that the center of Don will make landfall about 30 miles Southeast of Kingsville (or about 35-40 miles South of Corpus Christi), by 7:30 pm CDT.

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FISH FACE

Kiss o' the deep.

Via (top to bottom):

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12

Center of Don Approaching Texas Coast - Winds Tame So Far

The above image was taken just a moment ago from the Brownsville, TX radar. The small red dot in the middle of the white circle shows the approximate location of the center of Tropical Storm Don at 5:45 pm CDT.  This position is about 25 miles off of the Texas coast.  Based on the movement of Don on the 4pm CDT National Hurricane center advisory (West/Northwest at 16 mph), we can expect landfall of the center about 40 miles South of Corpus Christi, along South Padre Island, during the 7 o'clock hour this evening.

I've been monitoring surface observations along the coast and on the data buoys out in the Gulf of Mexico, and thus far nothing too impressive has been recorded wind-wise.  There is a buoy about 15 miles South of the center, and so far the maximum wind speed it has recorded has been 21 mph.  Similar observations have been made along the immediate coastal bend during the last hour or so.

None-the-less, hurricane hunter aircraft measurements along with satellite and radar estimates indicate that steady winds of 40-50 mph with gusts of 60-65 mph are taking place near the center of Don.  This portion of the system will make landfall in a relatively unpopulated region, along South Padre island, about 40 miles South of Corpus Christi and 65-70 miles North of Brownsville. 

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Tropical Storm Don Nearing the Coast of Texas

At of the 4pm CDT National Hurricane Center advisory, the center of Tropical Storm Don was located about 95 miles Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX.  This position is also about 105 miles Northeast of Brownsville, TX.  Maximum sustained winds were 50 mph, and the minimum central pressure was 29.65 inches of mercury.  Don continues to move toward the West/Northwest at 16 mph, and this motion is expected to continue through this evening.

Based on the present location and movement, the center of Don will move onshore along the Texas coast about 40 or so miles South of Corpus Christi later this evening (likely between 8 and 9pm based on the current speed of movement).  With that said, it is important not to focus on exactly when and where the center will make landfall.  It is important to remember that the tropical storm force winds associated with Don extend just over 100 miles from the center at various points, which means that stronger winds will overspread the lower Texas coast well before landfall of the center.  Steady winds of 45-55 mph with gusts of 60-65 mph can be expected along the lower coast to the South of Corpus Christi anytime after 6pm CDT this evening.

Heavier showers and thunderstorms are also making their way to shore along South Padre Island at this hour, as shown by the latest image from the Brownsville, TX radar below:

Isolated tornadoes will become a threat with some of the thunderstorms and squalls that move onshore this evening, particularly to the "right" of where the center of the storm makes landfall.  This would include the Corpus Christi area, where coverage of the activity may be more scattered in nature, but the intensity of that activity could be even stronger.  Tropically-induced tornadoes are typically relatively weak and short-lived, however this is another hazard to be considered along the lower to middle coastal bend this evening.

Very heavy rainfall can also be expected in association with Don through Saturday.  The axis of heaviest rain, on the order of 3-5 inches with locally higher amounts, is forecast to occur within the purple shaded areas on the image below:

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Tropical Storm Don Update - 1pm Friday

At 1pm CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Don was located about 145 miles Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX. Movement was West/Northwest at 15 mph.  Maximum sustained winds were 50 mph, and the minimum central pressure was 29.65 inches of mercury.





Radar imagery from Brownsville, TX (which is located at the center of the image below) shows that heavier showers and thunderstorms are currently about 30-40 miles offshore of the Southern end of South Padre Island... and moving Westward.  Scattered, less intense, showers and thunderstorms are already moving inland to the North up toward Corpus Christi.

Most tropical systems produce the heaviest rainfall to the "right" of the center.  In this particular case, a band of stronger Northerly winds above the surface level are causing the heavier precipitation to focus to the "left" of the center.  This will tend to carry the heaviest, most widespread rainfall to the South of the Corpus Christi area this afternoon and evening.

Showers, thunderstorms and gradually the wind will be on the increase across the middle and lower Texas coast throughout the remainder of the afternoon and especially into this evening.  Tropical storm force winds currently extend outward about 105 miles from the center of Don.  With that in mind, and taking the current movement into consideration, tropical storm force winds (likely on the order of 45-55 mph with higher gusts) can be expected to develop along the coast between Brownsville and Corpus Christi by early evening.  The center of the storm is forecast to make landfall about 30-40 miles South of Corpus Christi by Midnight.





Isolated tornadoes are also possible with thunderstorms that form in association with Don this afternoon and evening.  Tropically induced tornadoes are typically fairly weak and short-lived.





At this time, it does not appear as though Don will strengthen to hurricane force prior to making landfall, however high-end tropical storm force winds can be expected along the affected portions of the Texas coast:

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Outer Rain Bands of Don Nearing the Coast...

At 10am CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Don was located about 190 miles Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX. Don was moving West/Northwest at 14 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.  The minimum central pressure is 29.59 inches of mercury.





A recent image from the radar in Corpus Christi (below) shows scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the outer bands of Don are approaching the Texas coast at this hour:

Shower and thunderstorm activity will be on the increase across the coastal bend throughout the midday and afternoon hours today.  Some will produce locally heavy downpours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward about 105 miles from the center of Don.  With the present movement in mind, tropical storm force winds can be expected along the coast within the Tropical Storm Warning area (blue shaded area on the image below) later this evening:

As mentioned in a post yesterday evening, Don took an abrupt turn toward the West between 4 and 7pm yesterday, which has resulted in a track further to the South as compared to forecasts that had been issued earlier this week.  The center of Don is currently forecast (see map above) to make landfall along the Texas coast to the South of Corpus Christi just before Midnight tonight.

This further Southward track will unfortunately result in less rainfall potential for the Austin-San Antonio corridor tonight and Saturday.  However, much needed rain will fall further South across southcentral Texas, as shown by the latest rainfall forecast image below:

Residents along the Coast, particularly from the Corpus Christi area Southward, should finish preparations for Tropical Storm Don this morning.  Some further strengthening is likely before landfall, however it does not currently appear as though Don will reach hurricane strength.

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Tropical Storm Don Stronger - Tracking South of Original Forecast

At 10pm CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Don was located about 370 miles Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX, or 325 miles East/Southeast of Brownsville, TX.  Don was moving toward the West/Northwest at 13 mph.  Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 29.47 inches of mercury.

As reported earlier this evening, Don took a jog to the West/Southwest by about 60 miles between 4 and 7pm CDT, which has resulted in a shift in the forecast track for the next 24-36 hours.  The revised forecast track brings landfall of the center of Don along the Texas coast about 40 miles to the South of Corpus Christi around Midnight on Friday night/Saturday morning:

As a result, Tropical Storm Warnings have been extended Southward, from South of Port Mansfield to the mouth of the Rio Grande.  The warning continues Northward as far as San Luis Pass.

Residents along the middle Texas coast should not let their guard down just yet.  Systems as (relatively) small as Don are notorious for sudden fluctuations  in both movement and intensity.

Widespread, locally heavy rainfall will take place along and near the center of Don Friday night and Saturday.  Currently, the heaviest rainfall (on the order of 3-5 inches) is forecast within the purple shaded areas on the image below:

The location of the heaviest rainfall is highly dependent upon the exact track of the center of Don.  Any further change in track will result in a shift of the focus for the heaviest rainfall.  Lesser intense showers and thunderstorms will extend up to 200 miles either side of the center of the system.

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