Preliminary UK-Europe Winter Forecast 2011-12 Points to Perhaps Toughest Winter in Recent 'Chilly Cycle' which commenced in 2009

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In Today's Blog

#BRITISH ISLES-EUROPE
Very warm week across UK but hefty thundery downpours will impact areas today, easing by tomorrow through Wed before returning Thurs

#USA
Relentless Heat Continues Pushing towards the benchmark 1980 record for Southern Plains


Mark Vogan's Preliminary UK-Europe Winter Forecast 2011-2012

This Year will continue the Cycle of 'Colder & Snowier Than Normal' Winters for the UK

'The 2011-12 winter may be one of worst overall for UK in last 100 Years with past two a mere curtain raiser'

HIGHLIGHTS

• Extreme Cold Will Be a Regular Visitor with Low Temps of between -16 to -24C possible from Scotland's far north to the Suburbs of London

• Another White Christmas is possible for most of the UK, most likely over Scotland

• Cold and Snow to Arrive to much of UK by December 15th and may last throughout January

I have real concerns about what winter may bring to us across the UK in 2011-12. Low solar activity is continuing to force me into the thinking of harsh winter weather for us and although winter arrived early during 2010-11, don't be fooled when winter doesn't arrive by December 1st.

Lennoxtown, East Dumbartonshire, December 2010

Renewed High-Latitude Volcanic Acivity, Quiet Sun Spot Acivity and Near Neutral ENSO or La Nina Pattern in Pacific Points to Another Harsh Winter

I believe the continued unsettled and wet summers the UK is experiencing continues to point to increasingly colder winters and with a near neutral ENSO and the continued influence of high-latitude volcanic activity, major 'blocking' will send exceptional cold from the Pole, Northern Europe and Siberia across the UK and my fear is that this will set up shop for a sustained period of time which may test all-time record cold in many UK towns and Cities.

M8 Glasgow, December 2010

This winter may bring severe icing on the River Clyde, Thames, Loch Lomond and even around some UK coastal areas.

The worst of the cold I believe will hit around or just after New Year following a 3rd UK-wide White Christmas in a row and may last through much of January. Within this cold spell, Highs may struggle to reach -10C in Glasgow and Edinburgh and lows may take a run at -20C. Many English and Welsh towns and Cities may struggle to reach highs of -6 to -8C and lows may tumble towards -18 to -21C.

Near Crawfordjohn, South Lanarkshire, December 2010

It is possible that the all-time coldest reading in the UK of -27C reached at both Braemar, Aberdeenshire and Altnaharra, Sutherland may be threatened if not beaten and even in areas of England we may see the first -20C low since the 1960s and 70s.

As for Europe, Arctic cold may spread continent-wide during late December and we may be looking at a period of severe cold after a snowy December from the UK to Poland. Record cold and a maximum test to humanity, the power system and transport infrastructure may make for tough living for 2-3 weeks in January.

In Today's News

"The current string of 100-degree days will probably last into the middle of August."

Dallas' 100-Degree Streak Still Going
ACCUWEATHER.COM

Record percentage of United States experiences 'exceptional drought'
CNN

There were record levels of drought across almost 12% of the United States in July, says the National Drought Mitigation Center. (Image source: CNN)

Happy birthday weather forecasts
BBC

Russia Tornado Kills One, Injures Dozens
ACCUWEATHER.COM

THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY

TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER

HIGH: 111° at Chandler, OK
LOW: 34° at Bodie State Park, CA

TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE

HIGH: 84° (29.1°C) at Gravesend (Kent)
LOW: 48° (9.1°C) at Frittenden (Kent)

TODAY'S EXTREMES EHERE AT MY HOUSE

HIGH: 65°
LOW: 59°

Thanks for reading.
-Mark