***Update 10:45 AM CDT: The Hurricane Hunter aircraft did not find a completely closed circulation at the surface, but they did find "near Tropical Storm force winds" at the surface in association with the system. Despite that fact, the NHC has declined to classify this system even as a Tropical Depression at this point. ?????? ?? ?
There was a time when an organized circulation on satellite (which this system has), combined with aircraft measurements of near Tropical Storm force winds at the surface, and a prognosis of further development would have prompted the NHC to at least go ahead and declare this system a Tropical Depression (if not already a storm) - especially with it nearing a land mass (the Windward and Leeward islands). I guess that just isn't how its done anymore...
Anyway... another hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to revisit the system this afternoon, so hopefully the NHC will be more "comfortable" taking action at that time...
If you live in the Leeward or Windward Islands, don't be surprised if you go from "nothing" to a Tropical Storm Warning by this afternoon or evening! All classifications and opinions about classifications aside, I would start making preparations for this future "Emily", which is moving West/Northwestward at 15 mph...
------------------------------------Original post below:
The strong tropical disturbance that we've been blogging about over the weekend continues to show very solid signs of a closed circulation on satellite imagery this morning. I would be very surprised if the National Hurricane Center (NHC) did not at least upgrade this system to a Tropical Depression today. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is investigating the area at this time. A similar flight was made yesterday afternoon, however the NHC later reported that all of the data was not completely received because of "technical difficulties".
This system is forming in a region favorable for additional development, and I would expect that we'll have Tropical Storm and then Hurricane Emily out of this one before the week is over...
Computer forecast models continue to suggest that the system will track toward Puerto Rico by mid-week, then progress on toward the Northwest from there...
Whether or not Florida or any other portion of the Southeast U.S. coast will be affected is highly dependent upon the movement of a trough of low pressure across the eastern United States later this week. As you can see, a few of the models feel that the trough will move "out of the way" and let the system move toward Florida by Saturday, while a couple of other models show the influence of the trough continuing, and move the system out to sea before it reaches the Southeast U.S.
Right now it's simply too early to tell what the exact track of this system will be by the end of the week. Residents of Florida and the Southeast U.S. should keep an eye on this system throughout the week and listen for later statements and forecasts...
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