Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Impact of Hurricane Irene: Known Dead, 2 Million Without Power

Thursday, Hurricane Irene moved northbound across the east coast of the United States after hitting the Bahamas hard.

Hurricane Irene was moving at 115 mph winds today at five o’clock EST, making it a Category 3 Hurricane. A fear going into Thursday was that the path of the storm would move westward enough to threaten the Maryland area, including Washington D.C.

After already seeing the Bahamas lose power, endure flooding, and having multiple buildings damaged, the fears of the American citizens are completely founded.

According to Bill Read of the National Hurricane Center, the storm has the potential to hit New York and the surrounding area at a strength of a Category 2 and with approximately 100 mile per hour winds.

All across the east coast states, heavy rain is expected with as much as ten inches of heavy rain in some areas.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency is already getting ready to go to work in the event that major damage is done and people are in need of major help.

Every time we talk about a hurricane in the United States, we look back to Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans and along the Gulf states. While Hurricane Irene is not expected to be nearly as strong, the fear is always there in the minds of Americans.
Hurricane Irene marches north, leaving at least 8 people dead and close to 2 million without power in the states it has already hit. Tonight it bore down on millions more from the Delmarva peninsula to the Jersey Shore and the New York metropolitan area.

The deaths reported so far included victims of car accidents and falling tree limbs. One man suffered a heart attack as he boarded up his house in North Carolina. Many more -- the precise numbers change -- have been injured as a result of high winds and tornadoes that have reportedly touched down in Virginia, North Carolina, West Virginia, New Jersey, and Delaware.

Nearly 10,000 airline flights have been canceled around the country. Philadelphia's airport, among others, completely shut down operations as of 10:30 p.m., and New York's three major airports said they would as well.

whether excessive hurricane Irene in action?

At The Daily Beast, Howard Kurtz castigates local and national media for overhyping Hurricane Irene:

Someone has to say it: cable news was utterly swept away by the notion that Irene would turn out to be Armageddon. […]

Every producer knew that to abandon the coverage even briefly—say, to cover the continued fighting in Libya—was to risk driving viewers elsewhere. Websites, too, were running dramatic headlines even as it became apparent that the storm wasn’t as powerful as advertised.

It’s useful to imagine the version of this column Earth-two Howard Kurtz wrote (assuming we lived in this alternate universe) after Irene picked up speed and moisture on Saturday, morphed into a Category 2 hurricane – with sustained winds of 100 miles per hour—and struck New York City with a direct hit, killing hundreds of people who were unable to evacuate, and causing $27 billion in economic damage.

In this world, Howard Kurtz was outraged by the complacency of local and national news organizations, who stressed the rarity of serious hurricanes on the North Atlantic seaboard and downplayed the potential threat of Irene. “If only the media had met hurricane-force winds with hurricane-force warnings,” wrote Earth-Two Kurtz, “then we would have been spared lost lives and terrible damage.”

You get the point. Hurricanes are unpredictable creatures—strong storms can diminish to the point of harmlessness, while seemingly weak ones can become dangerous in a matter of hours. Given the high chance that Irene could have been far worst than it was, local and national media were doing their job by covering hurricane developments and urging caution at every opportunity.

The same goes for government officials, and in particular, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and New Jersey Governor Chris Chrisie. It’s only because of luck that we can describe their evacuation orders and moves to prevent mass drownings as overreactions. Had the Northeast been hit with the force of a category 1 (or 2) hurricane, those precautions would have saved lives, and we would have been thankful for them.

As it stands, even with ample preparation, Hurricane Irene wasn’t without its toll: 24 deaths, 2.4 million people evacuated, 4 million people without electricity, and billions of dollars in damage. When someone says that we “overreacted,” remember: It could have been a lot worse.
f you’ve turned on the TV or opened the newspaper in the past few days, you’ve probably heard of a little storm named Irene. Correction: a massive Category 2 hurricane named Irene that is barreling towards the East Coast and expected to slam into North Carolina tomorrow afternoon. The 750 mile wide storm is a particularly slow moving hurricane, and New York City is preparing for Irene to hit early Sunday morning as a Category 1 with winds up to 90 mph. Some forecasters think it may even hit us as a stronger Category 2 storm. All of the 5 boroughs are in a state of emergency; Coney Island, the Rockaways, Battery Park City, and parts of Long Island have all been evacuated; and the MTA is prepared to shut down the entire transportation system. The storm is being called a “once in 50-year hurricane” for the Northeast.



picture of hurricane Irene 10 years ago today

Many are sure to remember that Friday.

Hurricane Irene came barging into town with torrential downpours, gusty winds and an element of surprise.

That was on Oct. 15, 1999 - 10 years ago today.

The storm produced 10 to 20 inches of rain and caused severe widespread flooding. More than 700,000 homes and businesses lost power.

And eight people were killed. Five were electrocuted and three drove vehicles into canals. Additionally, tornadoes injured three people in Broward County.

Irene surprised many because they weren't expecting a hurricane, even though they knew a storm was approaching.

At the time, some criticized the National Hurricane Center for that.

But forecasters noted they had issued a tropical storm warning and that most of South Florida experienced just that, a tropical storm, not a hurricane.
Irene was a Category 1 storm with sustained winds of 150 kilometers per hour (90 miles per hour) and stronger gusts when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this image on August 15, 2005. The third hurricane of the 2005 Atlantic season, Irene is not expected to threaten land.

While Hurricane Irene may not affect the United States or Canada, it is having an effect on haze over the Atlantic Ocean. Hot, humid weather in the Mid-Atlantic states has allowed pollution to build up. As the haze flows out to sea, it is encountering Hurricane Irene, which is steering the haze in a wide circle around its northern edge.
The large image provided above is at MODIS maximum resolution of 250 meters per pixel. The image is available in additional resolutions from the MODIS Rapid Response Team.

Friday, August 26, 2011

New York City Airports Closing at 12 Noon Saturday

The Port Authority of New York has announced that all major New York City airports will be closed effective 12 Noon EDT on Saturday due to the approach of Hurricane Irene.





Even if you have a flight scheduled prior to the airport closures, I highly suggest calling ahead to make sure it hasn't been cancelled already.



The closure of the NYC area airports will cause a huge bottleneck in the nationwide air travel system that is likely to last well into next week... regardless of what type of physical damage Irene does to the area.







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First "Irene" Tornado Watch Issued...



The SPC in Normanhas just issued a Tornado Watch for portions of far eastern North Carolina, including the Outer Banks, valid until 5am EDT Saturday.


Tornadoes often occur in association with tropical systems, due to the warm, buoyant, tropical air and copious amounts of rotation associated with the system.  Tropically-induced tornadoes are usually rather weak and short lived.




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Single Vaccine Protects Against Rabies And Ebola Virus

Researchers from Thomas Jefferson University, among other institutions, including the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, have developed single vaccines to protect against both rabies and the Ebola virus.

Successfully tested in mice, these bivalent vaccines have several advantages over other Ebola candidates that could help speed up development for use in humans and primates. It's built on the same platform as the already approved and financially viable rabies vaccine, and it protects at-risk populations against two viruses, not just one, making it an effective and ideal public health tool.

"Many Ebola vaccine candidates have been proven effective, but none are close to licensure," said Matthias Schnell, Ph.D., director of the Jefferson Vaccine Center. "One of the challenges is the market: There's rather limited incentive in creating a vaccine for Ebola. But these vaccines could change that."

The findings were published ahead of print online August 17 in the Journal of Virology.

The Ebola virus belongs to the Filoviridae family and is comprised of five distinct species. The Zaïre, Sudan and Bundibugyo species have been associated with large Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks in Africa. According to the World Health Organization, more than a thousand people have died from the virus since it was discovered in 1976.

"Rabies still poses a health threat for people worldwide, and is especially devastating in developing nations where a post exposure treatment is often not available. And Ebola still exists in parts of Central Africa and is also a chief bioterrorism concern worldwide," said Dr. Schnell, who is also a Professor in the Department of Microbiology and Immunology at Thomas Jefferson University. "You can protect these people from two very lethal diseases in an area where they don't have the best access to medical care."

The purpose of this study was to identify novel vaccine candidates for Ebola with a maximum potential of licensure and utilization.

Researchers generated a chemically inactivated and live rabies virus expressing the Ebola Zaïre species glycoprotein using a reverse genetics system based on the commonly-used rabies vaccine. Immunizations with those vaccines, the researchers found, induced immunity against each virus and conferred protection from both viruses in mice.

Piggy backing, in a sense, on the rabies vaccine could accelerate development of vaccines that protects against Ebola because of the advanced state of the rabies vaccine's safety, production and distribution, according to Schnell.

"After the vaccine has been tested in primates and eventually humans, this new vaccine could kill the proverbially two birds with one stone," he said.

There are implications for nonhumans, too—gorillas, in particular. The Ebola virus has eradicated thousands of gorillas, prompting the World Conservation Union to raise their status to "critically endangered" in 2007, the first time a mammal has become critically endangered as a direct result of disease. Vaccinations, though challenging, could stall those deaths.

What's more, several human outbreaks have been attributed to primate interaction or handling, so providing a vaccine for our closest relative could minimize that risk.

Contacts and sources:
Steve Graff
Thomas Jefferson University

Hurricane Irene: Warnings Extended Northward; Significant Impacts Likely







Above are the latest visible ("naked eye view"), infrared (measures the cloud temperatures) and water vapor (measures the moisture content) satellite images of Irene.  As you can see, the eye of Irene is beginning to emerge once again on the infrared and especially on the water vapor imagery.


As of the 5pm EDT National Hurricane Center (NHC) Advisory, Hurricane Warnings were extended Northward as far as Sagamore Beach, MA.  This means that a Hurricane Warning is now in effect for New York City, Long Island, Long Island Sound, Coastal Connecticut and Rhode Island, Martha's Vinyard and Nantucket.  See the color coded NHC map below for a visual representation:




Irene is moving toward the North/Northeast at 14 mph, with a minimum central pressure of 28.05 inches of mercury (950 millibars) and maximum sustained winds of 100-105 mph (statistics as of the 8pm EDT NHC Advisory).  


Both the satellite imagery and the latest Charleston, SC radar image (below) show that some of heaviest squalls yet are about to move onshore across the Carolinas:




For more detailed information on the likely impacts across North Carolina, please see my latest Hurricane Irene Impacts post here.


The center of Irene will move out over the Gulf Stream throughout the evening and overnight hours, which I believe will result in gradual intensification (note the recent drop in pressure compared to the observation 3 hours ago).  As mentioned in the North Carolina-specific post referenced above, I expect Irene to have maximum sustained winds of at least 115 mph as she approaches the outer banks tomorrow.  Some computer models forecast even higher sustained winds by that time.  We will have to monitor trends this evening and overnight for additional updates.


Beyond North Carolina (again, for specifics on North Carolina, please go to this recent post), Irene is forecast to have significant impact all the way up the coast through the Baltimore/Washington area and into New York City, Long Island and New England over the weekend.


Based on the latest observations and computer forecast model guidance, here is how I see the primary wind threats panning out this weekend:




Another important thing to remember about the winds with Irene has to do with the duration of the event.  The winds shown on the image above are the maximum expected sustained winds and wind gusts.  Those maximum winds will take place for a period of 6-9 hours at any given location, based on the current expected movement of Irene.  Less intense, but still strong, winds will take place for up to an additional 12 hours at any given location (i.e., tropical storm force winds that arrive well before the hurricane force winds, etc.).  This will result in local areas being impacted with sustained 40+ mph winds and frequent gusts of 60+ mph for 18-24 hours total in some areas!


In addition to strong winds, very heavy, potentially flooding rainfall of 6-10 inches with localized amounts of 12-14 inches can be expected along the path of Irene.  With grounds already saturated from recent rainfall, added to the heavy rains from Irene and the strong winds, this will create the potential for widespread tree damage, which will increase an already high threat of widespread power outages.


Most of the major metropolitan areas, including New York City, have announced that transit systems will be shut down beginning sometime Saturday.  Now is the time to act.  If you live in a flood or storm surge prone area (i.e., Evacuation Zones A and B in the New York City area), I strongly suggest that you consider moving West this evening or early Saturday to avoid Irene.  There will be no public mode of transportation after tomorrow afternoon, and the roads are also likely to become grid-locked in some areas by that time as well...


The City of New York has declared a mandatory evacuation for Zone A.


Beyond the wind, rain and flooding impacts of Irene, storm surge will also be a significant problem in many areas.  Depending on exactly when the center of Irene passes through a given location (in relation to high tide, etc.), significant amounts of water can be expected to be pushed inland, including in the New York city area (hence the cause for the evacuation call for Zone A in New York City - and, frankly, I don't like the chances for Zone B either).


Power outages will be widespread, and communications will also be severely disrupted in many areas.  That's why we strongly encourage you to take action now before the storm gets any closer.


I will post additional region-specific updates as a more precise idea as to the specific impacts emerge.




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Study Sheds Light On Stem Cell Role In Regenerating Fingers, Toes

Tissue-specific adult stem cells are responsible for the ability of mammals to re-grow the tips of fingers or toes lost to trauma or surgery, say researchers at the Stanford University School of Medicine. The finding discredits a popular theory that holds that previously specialized cells regress, or dedifferentiate, in response to injury to form a pluripotent repair structure called a blastema.

“We’ve shown conclusively that what was thought to be a blastema is instead simply resident stem cells that are already committed to become specific tissue types,” said Irving Weissman, MD, director of Stanford’s Institute for Stem Cell Biology and Regenerative Medicine. “The controversy about limb regeneration in mammals should be over.”

The research is particularly meaningful because some scientists and national media reports have championed the idea that money allotted by the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine for stem cell studies would have been better funneled to blastema research, Weissman said.

Weissman, who is also the Virginia & D.K. Ludwig Professor for Clinical Investigation in Cancer Research and a member of Stanford’s Cancer Institute, is the senior author of the study, published Aug. 24 in Nature

Although it’s not well-known, mice and even some humans can re-grow finger or toe tips that have been lost in accidents. But, unlike salamanders or newts, their ability is limited to the repair of relatively minor damage. “While lower vertebrates can regenerate an entire limb within a matter of weeks, mice and humans have maintained only a vestige of this ability,” said Rinkevich. “The re-growth of amputated digit tips — a few millimeters in mice and up to the first joint in humans — is the only documented case of limb regeneration in mammals. We wanted to understand the basic mechanism of how this happens.”

Unlike salamanders, mice offered a genetically well-documented animal model with which to study limb regeneration. Specifically, Rinkevich, Weissman and their colleagues have shown that damage to a digit tip is repaired by specialized adult stem cells that spend their lives quietly nestled in each tissue type. Like master craftsmen, these cells spring into action at the first sign of damage, working independently yet side-by-side to regenerate bone, skin, tendon, vessels and nerves. But just as you wouldn’t ask a mason to wire your house, or an electrician to put on a new roof, the division of labor among these stem cells is strict. Each is responsible solely for its own tissue type.

In contrast, the blastema theory invokes a new pluripotent cell type formed out of urgency from previously specialized cells. This jack-of-all-trades cell discards its former profession and instead jumps in to indiscriminately regenerate all the tissue types of the limb.

A German group headed by stem cell scientist Elly Tanaka, PhD, published similar results in salamanders in 2009, but it was unclear whether the findings would hold true in mammals.

“This finding changes the current dogma of limb regeneration, from pluripotent blastema cells to tissue-specific stem and progenitor cells,” said Rinkevich.

Limb regeneration is governed by the action of tissue-specific adult stem cells. Here, a mouse has been engineered to have cells that express only one of four possible colors: red, green, yellow or blue. As the tip of an amputated digit re-grows, strict separations between the contributions of individual cells are apparent as distinct bands of color.
 
Credit: Yuval Rinkevich

For this study, Rinkevich used genetics to label specific tissue types in the mice with distinctive fluorescent colors that are easily seen through a microscope. He then surgically removed a small (a few millimeters) portion of the animals’ toe to mimic a naturally occurring amputation injury and waited for the tip to re-grow. (The animals were anesthetized during the procedure and were given analgesics after the procedure to relieve pain.)

After three months, Rinkevich and his colleagues examined the regenerated tissue.

“We found that each tissue type could only give rise to that type of tissue,” he said. “There was no cross contribution between tissue types or germ layers.” In other words, there were clear demarcations between areas of color that corresponded to structures such as the epidermis, tendon, nail, vessels, nerves and bone.

“I was extremely surprised,” said Rinkevich. “I began the experiment very eager to find something like a dedifferentiation or transdifferentiation phenomenon — that is, one tissue type becoming another. But this is clearly not the case.”

In addition to the blastema theory, there was one other possibility. Some researchers had suggested that stem cells circulating in the blood could contribute to this type of regeneration. To assess this possibility, Rinkevich connected the circulatory systems of two mice. One mouse was genetically bred to express a colorful marker in all its cells; the other had its toe tip removed. They found that the labeled cells did not contribute to the regenerated tissue, showing that circulating stem cells were unlikely to be involved in the regrowth of the limb.

The researchers work doesn’t discredit previous work by researchers at Stanford and elsewhere showing that it is possible using transferred genes to coax adult, specialized cells (such as those found in the skin) to become other types of cells, such as neurons. That line of study is still very important to the possible development of future therapies and the generation of cell lines for research, they say. However, the approach in the new study has some particular advantages.

“Here we are characterizing and learning about a naturally occurring regeneration phenomenon without adding other genes,” said Rinkevich. “That’s our strong point. We want to first understand how normal tissue regeneration works. Then we can try to exploit that knowledge to perhaps enhance the growth of digits or limbs in humans.”

In addition to Rinkevich and Weissman, other Stanford researchers involved in the study include research assistant Paul Lindau, postdoctoral scholar Hiroo Ueno, PhD, and professor of surgeryMichael Longaker, MD.

The research was supported by the California Institute of Regenerative Medicine, the Smith Family Trust, the Oak Foundation, the Hagey Laboratory for Pediatric Regenerative Medicine, the

Contacts and sources:
By Krista Conger
Stanford University

Sex With Neanderthals Boosted Immune System Of Modern Humans

For a few years now, scientists have known that humans and their evolutionary cousins had some casual flings, but now it appears that these liaisons led to a more meaningful relationship.

Laurent Abi-Rached, Paul Norman and Libby Guethlein are co-authors of research on how the genome of geographically-distinct human populations vary in the amount and type of immune-system genes inherited from evolutionary cousins, the Neanderthals and Denisovans. People in Papua New Guinea, for instance, have a particularly high percentage of one type of immune-system gene that is rarely found in people in Africa.
description of photo
Credit: Stanford University/

Sex with Neanderthals and another close relative — the recently discovered Denisovans — has endowed some human gene pools with beneficial versions of immune system genes, report researchers at the Stanford University School of Medicine in an article published online Aug. 25 inScience Express.

Although modern humans, Neanderthals and Denisovans share a common ancestor in Africa, the groups split into separate, distinct populations approximately 400,000 years ago. The Neanderthal lineage migrated northwestward into West Asia and Europe, and the Denisovan lineage moved northeastward into East Asia. The ancestors of modern man stayed in Africa until 65,000 years or so ago, when they expanded into Eurasia and then encountered the other human-like groups. In some cases, the rendezvous were amorous in nature.

Last year, a partial genome sequence of Neanderthals, who died out approximately 30,000 years ago, revealed that these trysts left as much as 4 percent Neanderthal DNA in the genetic blueprint of some present-day humans. Last December, the genome of another human cousin, the extinct Denisovans, made clear that up to 6 percent of some people's genomes are Denisovan in origin.

Peter Parham
Credit: Stanford University

Now, a team of researchers led by Peter Parham, PhD, professor of structural biology and of microbiology and immunology, has found that these matings had a positive effect on modern human fitness. "The cross breeding wasn’t just a random event that happened, it gave something useful to the gene pool of the modern human," said Parham, who is senior author of the study.

The useful gift was the introduction of new variants of immune system genes called the HLA class-1 genes, which are critical for our body's ability to recognize and destroy pathogens. HLA genes are some of the most variable and adaptable genes in our genome, in part because the rapid evolution of viruses demands flexibility on the part of our immune system.

"The HLA gene system, with its diversity of variants, is like a magnifying glass," said lead author Laurent Abi-Rached, PhD, explaining that it provides a lot more detail about the history of populations than typical gene families. Abi-Rached is a research associate in the Parham lab.

Prior to the sequencing of the Neanderthal and Denisovan genomes, Parham and his group had suspected that at least one HLA variant came from archaic humans. They determined that the variant known as HLA-B*73 is rare in present-day African populations but occurs with significant frequency in West Asian populations. The ethnic distribution of HLA-B*73 and its similarity across populations suggested that it came from a relatively recent co-mingling of modern human and archaic human DNA, which most likely would have happened outside of Africa. Parham's team wanted to discern which archaic humans were the source of the HLA-B*73 gene type. In the last year they have found the answer in the genome sequence of a recently discovered human relative, the Denisovans, whose existence first came to light in 2008 with the discovery of an unfamiliar finger bone and tooth in a cave in Siberia.

By comparing the HLA genes of the archaic humans with modern humans, the researchers were able to show that the HLA-B*73 allele likely came from cross breeding with Denisovans. Little is known about what the Denisovans looked like (the finger bone and the tooth are the only known fossils), but the genome sequence extracted from the finger bone gives insight into where they overlapped with modern humans. Gene flow from the Denisovans into modern humans has left the highest frequency of the HLA-B*73 allele in populations in West Asia, the most likely site for the fortuitous mating to have taken place.

Even in West Asian populations, the HLA-B*73 variant never represents more than 5 percent of all known variants of that gene. However, other human HLA types that arose from ancient matings are found in much greater frequencies. "Certain traits coming from these archaic humans have become the dominant form," said Parham. For example, another HLA gene type, called HLA-A*11, is absent from African populations, but represents up to 64 percent of variants in East Asia and Oceania, with the greatest frequency in people from Papua New Guinea. "The likely interpretation was that these HLA class variants provided an advantage to modern human and so rose to high frequencies."

A similar scenario is seen in some HLA gene types found in the Neanderthal genome, which was also sequenced from DNA extracted from ancient bones. These gene variants are common in European and Asian populations but rare in African populations. "We are finding frequencies in Asia and Europe that are far greater than whole-genome estimates of archaic DNA in modern human genomes, which is 1 to 6 percent," said Parham. Within one class of HLA gene, the researchers estimate that Europeans owe half of their variants to interbreeding with Neanderthals and Denisovans, Asians owe up to 80 percent and Papua New Guineans, up to 95 percent.

"This is not the pattern seen genomewide," said Abi-Rached. "The HLA system is unique in its diversity and the strength of natural selection acting on it, but it's possible that other gene systems, particularly the ones under similar pressure for variation, could show a similar pattern."

Other Stanford-affiliated authors include Matthew Jobin, PhD, lecturer in the Department of Anthropology; postdoctoral scholar Subhash Kulkarni, PhD; research assistant Farbod Babrzadeh; visiting scholar Baback Gharizadeh, PhD; and research associates Lisbeth Guethlein, PhD, and Paul Norman, PhD. The Stanford researchers collaborated with colleagues at the Anthony Nolan Research Institute in the United Kingdom; Ankara University in Turkey; theNational Marrow Donor Program in Minneapolis; the University of Manitoba; the University of Nairobi; the National Cancer Institute; Liverpool University; UCLA; Canadian Blood Services; andUC-Santa Cruz.

The study was funded by National Institutes of Health, the Yerkes Center, the National Science Foundation and the National Cancer Institute.

Information about the departments of Structural Biology and of Microbiology and Immunology, which also supported the work, is available at http://microimmuno.stanford.edu/ andhttp://structuralbio.stanford.edu/.

Contacts and sources: 
By Susan L. Young

Narcolepsy Caused By Flu? Scientists Link The Two

The onset of narcolepsy appears to follow seasonal patterns of H1N1 and other upper airway infections, according to a new study of patients in China that was led by Stanford University School of Medicine narcolepsy expert Emmanuel Mignot, MD.

The findings, published online Aug. 22 in Annals of Neurology, a journal of the American Neurological Association and Child Neurology Society, show that a peak in narcolepsy cases occurred five to seven months after a peak in flu/cold or H1N1 infections in the country.

“Together with recent findings, these results strongly suggest that winter airway infections such as influenza A (including H1N1), and/or Streptococcus pyogenes are triggers for narcolepsy,” Mignot, a professor of psychiatry and behavioral sciences, and his colleagues wrote in the paper.

The study follows recent reports that a particular H1N1 vaccine, not one used in the United States or China, seemed to lead to narcolepsy. This new paper, however, found no correlation between vaccination and narcolepsy among the patients studied in China. “The new finding of an association with infection, and not vaccination, is important as it suggests that limiting vaccination because of a fear of narcolepsy could actually increase overall risk,” the authors wrote.

Approximately 3 million people worldwide suffer from narcolepsy, a neurological disease that is characterized by daytime drowsiness, irregular sleep at night and cataplexy — a sudden loss of muscle tone and strength. In 2009 Mignot and colleagues confirmed scientists’ long-held suspicion that narcolepsy is an autoimmune disease, caused when patients’ immune systems kill the neurons that produce the protein hypocretin.

Experts believe that a person has a genetic predisposition to the disease, and some environmental factor kicks his or her immune system into action leading to narcolepsy. As noted in the paper, past studies have shown that Streptococcus pyogenes infections, such as strep throat, have preceded the onset of narcolepsy in Caucasians, suggesting a role for upper airway infections in triggering the disease, Mignot said.

Last year, several European countries reported new cases of narcolepsy in children who had been vaccinated for the H1N1 strain of influenza; children who received the Pandemrix H1N1 vaccine in Finland, for example, faced a ninefold increased risk of narcolepsy. The World Health Organization led an investigation and determined that something about this particular vaccine acted in a “joint effort” with “some other, still unknown factor” to increase risk in those already genetically predisposed. (Pandemrix contains two adjuvants to invoke a stronger immune response; these additives are not included in the H1N1 vaccines used in the United States and China.)

For the new study, the researchers looked at the data of 906 patients who were diagnosed with narcolepsy in Beijing between September 1998 and February 2011, and determined the patients’ month of onset of cataplexy and sleepiness. They conducted brief phone interviews with 154 patients whose narcolepsy appeared after October 2009, the date of the first H1N1 vaccination administered in China. The researchers also queried the patients about their history of seasonal flu, H1N1 vaccinations and other diseases.

Mignot’s group found that the occurrence of narcolepsy onset was seasonal and significantly influenced by month. Onset was least frequent in November and most frequent in April; there was a five- to seven-month delay between the seasonal peak in flu/cold or H1N1 infections and the peak in narcolepsy onset occurrences.

The paper doesn’t show cause and effect, but it does show a strong correlation between narcolepsy onset and this seasonal pattern.

The team also found a threefold increase in disease onset following the 2009-10 H1N1 winter flu pandemic compared with other years.

Only a small amount — 5.6 percent — of the patients interviewed recalled receiving an H1N1 vaccine. The onset, the researchers concluded, is unlikely to be explained by vaccinations. Instead, as they wrote in the paper, these winter infections appear to “initiate or reactivate an immune response that leads to hypocretin cell loss and narcolepsy in genetically susceptible individuals.”

Mignot said the work is exciting because it provides insight on how the disease is triggered. “We’re much closer to understanding what’s happening in the autoimmune destruction of hypocretin cells,” he explained.

From a public-health standpoint, Mignot said the work suggests that getting vaccinated and avoiding influenza may provide a protective benefit to patients. He said, “It’s very possible that being vaccinated with a mild vaccine, one without the adjuvants in question, blocks you from getting a big infection that could increase your risk of narcolepsy.”

As for the differences between the findings of the study and what has been observed in Europe, Mignot said it’s possible that the strong immune response prompted by the Pandemrix vaccine increases the risk of narcolepsy. He emphasized, however, that more study is needed and that people shouldn’t avoid getting vaccinated.

“Even with Pandemrix, it’s still a very small risk — and there’s a bigger risk from dying of an infection if you don’t get vaccinated,” he said.

Fang Han, MD, with the Beijing University People's Hospital, is the first author of the study. Mignot’s Stanford co-authors include research associate Ling Lin, MD, PhD; postdoctoral scholar Simon Warby, PhD; and senior research scientist Juliette Faraco, PhD.

This study was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Sino-German Center for Research Promotion, the Beijing Municipal Science & Technology Commission and the National Institutes of Health. Information about Stanford’s Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, which also supported this study, is available athttp://psychiatry.stanford.edu/.

Mignot is now in discussion with GlaxoSmithKline, the maker of Pandemrix, about funding new research on the vaccine.

Contacts and sources: 
Stanford University

City Of Floating Houses Planned By Dutch

Climate change is redefining the rules by which we live and at a pace we never expected. Because of rising sea level, several areas of the globe are in danger of vanishing from the map, disappearing under water. Society must adapt and maybe, one day, live in floating houses.

Credit: EUREKA

Depending on their geographical situation, some countries are more advanced than others in their adjustment to the effects of global warming, and particularly the rising level of the seas. In 1953, the Netherlands and large parts of Belgium and England were struck by what is known as the Watersnoodramp, literally “flood disaster”, destroying 10.000 buildings and killing over 2.500 people. Since then, the “low countries” have developed a culture of flood engineering that has sealed the reputation of its builders and might help to fight the consequences of rising sea levels due to climate change.  

A Dutch speciality
The results of FLOATEC, a European R&D project underwritten by EUREKA, can be found all over Europe, but the Netherlands is the primary market for the solution developed within the project. ‘It had the full backing of the Dutch government’ says Edwin Blom, project leader at Dura Vermeer. ‘The authorities designated some areas of the country as preferred grounds for experimentation on amphibian houses’. The project also benefited of a unique legal obligation existing in Netherlands: 7% to 12% of every construction site is to be dedicated to water storage, which makes floating houses also very convenient.
Credit: EUREKA

The leading partner in the EUREKA FLOATEC project, Dura Vermeer, is a Dutch company specialising in building homes in a country where many would consider buying a houseboat. It is currently employing some 3000 people in The Netherlands. Over the last 12 years, this company has become an outright leader in a market that barely existed before - that of floating buildings. With some revolutionary achievements under its belt, such as the Rotterdam floating exhibition pavilion, a greenhouse built on water, or the amphibious village in Maasbommel, all located in Netherlands, it has a strong record of daring architectural projects.

Best of both worlds
So, how do you build a floating house? Edwin Blom describes it as a relatively easy construction process: The secret lies in the foundations of the building, made of multiple layers of light plastic foam supporting the concrete, allowing it to float the same way a boat would do. But the technology used until now has its limitations. There is a maximum size and weight beyond which a structure loses its buoyancy and simply sinks. The engineers from Dura Vermeer had to look for a technological partner able to solve this problem, the key being in the use and development of the right type of material.

However, it proved to be impossible to find in the Netherlands a collaborator with the level of skill and innovation required. They finally found the perfect match thanks to the network of European R&D experts offered by EUREKA: Acciona Infrastructures, a Spanish company and a forerunner in the sector of nanotechnology-based composite materials. Whereas most of the research done in the sector has been oriented towards lucrative high-tech sectors such as aerospace or military, Acciona Infrastructures has been from the very start looking to adapt their knowledge to the needs of the construction business. ‘We would not have even thought of this market opportunity if we did not take part in this EUREKA project’ says Bladimir Osorio, project leader at Acciona Infrastructures.

Easy as building blocks
Together with a Spanish engineering consultancy, Solintel, the partners worked on a new way to build floating structures: simpler, more solid and using lighter materials. This new building method uses EPS, or expanded polystyrene, ‘the same kind as is used for packaging and which people are familiar with: little white balls glued together’, says Blom. The modified polystyrene is inserted in multiple layers in between stratums of composite and concrete and divided into beam-like modules that can easily be assembled into a bigger supporting structure ‘a bit like building blocks’. The modules are arranged in a floating grid into which the concrete is cast.
Even so, the technology is much more advanced than the one traditionally used, Edwin Blom points at the fact that it is still much cheaper than other method used until now: ‘We simply do not need to use as much material as we used to, he says. Smaller blocks can now support bigger structures and, in the end, the cost of the whole building is reduced’. For his Spanish counterpart Osorio, the project was ‘a real technological breakthrough that would never have been possible without EUREKA’.

If climate change means more floods in densely populated areas, the technology to answer this problem now exists thanks to the FLOATEC project, and the cards to be played are now in the hands of the governments and local authorities in charge of urban planning. For some countries, small island-states in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, the stakes are even higher, as it is estimated that they could disappear within the next 100 years. According to Jenny Grote Stoutenburg, a researcher in law from the German Max Planck Institute, ‘if a threatened island managed to keep an artificial, floating structure, occupied by caretakers, it could probably maintain its claim to statehood’.

Contacts and sources:
Piotr Pogorzelski
EUREKA

Wrightsville Beach, NC Getting Hammered....





The above LIVE webcam view from Wrightsville Beach, NC (just outside Wilmington) is growing more impressive by the hour. Graphs of the corresponding surface weather conditions in the area show a steady increase in both sustained winds and gusts, as well as a steady decrease in barometric pressure:




As you can see on the above graphs, wind gusts are now approaching 50 mph, with steady winds of near 40 mph at times.  This trend will continue to increase into the evening and overnight hours...


For more details on what can be expected across North Carolina, see my earlier post here.


Somebody put a windshield wiper on that camera!




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When It Comes To Pursuing Your Goals, Let You Unconscious Be Your Guide Say Researchers

A new University of Alberta study says when it comes to goal setting, your unconscious mind can be a great motivator.

Alberta School of Business researcher Sarah Moore and colleagues from Duke and Cornell universities say that unconscious feelings about objects in the environment influence the pursuit of long-term goals. Their study explores how the unconscious mind responds to objects in relation to an individual's goals—and how the unconscious continues to influence feelings about these objects once the goals are reached—whether or not the outcome has been successful.

In Freud we should trust?

"In the past few years, we recognized that some of [Sigmund] Freud's ideas on the unconscious mind were, in fact, correct and that a lot of our decision-making and a lot of our feelings are based on things that we're not really aware of," said Moore, who is an assistant professor in the Alberta School of Business. "In our study, we looked at how our unconscious feelings about objects in the environment influence how we pursue goals."

Moore notes that previous studies have shown that when it comes to short-term, finite goals, such as responding to basic needs (for example, thirst or hunger), the unconscious will evaluate objects and form preferences based on whether the object will help an individual achieve the goal. She says that in the case of thirst, items such as a water fountain or a bottle of Coke will be seen favourably, while a chocolate bar or KFC sign would not. However, she explains that, once the goal is reached, those same objects will be evaluated differently.

"Once your thirst is quenched, you don't evaluate the water fountain positively anymore because you've accomplished the goal," she said, " but there are differences when we look at long-term goals".

Win some, lose some—but goal still important

Moore's research focused on longer-term goals, such as getting in shape or undertaking educational pursuits. For both types of goals, she says, the process is similar in that the unconscious identifies and responds to positively to objects and triggers in the environment that support the goal. However, the unconscious deals differently with these objects during progress towards long-term goals. Moore says that, unlike with short-term finite goals, the unconscious will continue to positively value objects related to the long-term goals even after a level of success has been achieved. She says this phenomenon points to the indeterminate nature of the goal.

"In some sense, we're never 'finished' long-term goals," said Moore. "If we successfully finish the small steps toward our long-term goals, it becomes a cycle: we take a small step, we succeed, we feel good about it; therefore, we continue to feel good about the long-term goal. This process makes us more likely to take the next small step toward achieving that goal."

What was surprising for the researchers was how participants in their study reacted to objects after a failure. While the researchers expected the participants who failed to react negatively or express dislike for objects related to their test goal, Moore and her colleagues found that failure resulted in a neutral view of the objects.

"You don't hate the objects related to the goal because that goal is very important to you in the long run," said Moore. "Your unconscious is telling you 'now is not the time to pursue the goal. You just failed, let's leave it alone for awhile. We're not going to pursue these objects in the environment; we're going to switch to some other goal.'"
Contacts and sources:
Jamie Hanlon
University of Alberta

65 Million More Obese Adults In The US And 11 Million More In The UK Expected By 2030, Added Health Cost $66 Billion

The rising prevalence of obesity around the globe places an increasing burden on the health of populations, on healthcare systems and on overall economies. 

A major challenge for researchers is to quantify the effect of these burdens to inform public policies. Using a simulation model to project the probable health and economic consequences from rising obesity rates in the United States and the United Kingdom, researchers at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health and Oxford University forecast 65 million more obese adults in the U. S. and 11 million more in the U.K. by 2030, leading to millions of additional cases of diabetes, heart disease, stroke, and cancer. The findings suggest that medical costs associated with treatment of these preventable diseases in the U.S. alone will increase by $48-66 billion per year.

File:Obesity6.JPG
Credit: Wikipedia

The paper, "Health and Economic Burden of the Projected Obesity Trends in the USA and the UK," is part of a series of articles on obesity published in the August 27 issue of Lancet. The research was led by Y. Claire Wang, MD, ScD, Mailman School assistant professor of Health Policy and Management, with colleagues from Oxford University.

To construct historic trends in BMI the researchers analyzed data from two nationally representative surveys: the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 1988 to 2008, and the Healthy Survey for England (HSE) from 1993 to 2008. The U.S. and U.K. have the highest obesity rates among the countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Projecting from these data sets: the researchers predicted the following impacts for the U.S. by 2030:
Obesity prevalence among men would rise from 32% in 2008 to approximately 50% and from 35% to between 45% and 52% among women.
7.8 million extra cases of diabetes
6.8 million more cases of coronary heart disease and stroke
539,000 additional cases of cancer
Annual spending on obesity-related diseases would rise by 13-16%, leading to 2.6% increase in national health spending.
Total medical costs associated with treatment of these preventable diseases are estimated to increase by $48-66 billion/year.

For the U.K., researchers predicted the following developments by 2030:
  • Prevalence of obesity among men would increase from 26% to between 41—48%, and among women from 26% to 35-43%.

  • 668 000 more cases of diabetes

  • 461,000 more cases of heart disease and stroke

  • 139,000 additional cases of cancer.

  • In the U.K., annual spending on obesity-related health would increase even more rapidly than in the U.S. due to its older population, rising 25%.

"Many chronic and acute health disorders associated with excess bodyweight burden society—not only by negatively affecting the health-related quality of life but also by incurring significant costs," says Dr. Wang. These stem not only from increased healthcare expenditures but also from worker absenteeism, disability pensions, less productivity at work due to poor health, and earlier retirement."

The new study shows that even a small drop in average body mass index (BMI) would have a major health and economic impacts. They therefore recommend action to promote healthier body weights.

"Taking no action would have the catastrophic consequences described in our study, but a population level decrease in BMI by 1% would avoid as many as 2.4 million cases of diabetes, 1.7 million cases of heart disease and stroke, and up to 127 000 cases of cancer in the U.S. alone ."

There are currently 99 million obese individuals in the U.S and 15 million in the U.K. The distribution of obesity is somewhat different in the two nations. In the U.S. about one-quarter of all men are obese regardless of ethnicity. Almost half of black American women (46%) are obese, compared with a third of Hispanic women and 30% of white women. In the U.K., the proportion of obese white men (19%) is slightly higher than black men (17%) and much higher than Asian men (11%). One-third of black women in the U.K. are obese, compared with 1 in 5 white women and 1 in 6 Asian women.

While there is some evidence that the rise in obesity is levelling off in some nations and possibly in the U.S., the jury is still out, says Dr. Wang. "Population weight changes are slow to manifest. Whether or not the U.S. and UK have turned a corner or plateaued will not be clear until survey results over the next few years provide additional data points."

The suggestion that obese people die earlier, thus saving the likely expected social and healthcare costs if that person survives to old age, is also discussed in the paper. However the authors conclude, "Without a doubt, healthcare expenditure is high for elderly people, but these costs should not be used to justify the cost-savings of dying younger, or to suggest that obesity prevention has no benefit."

The study was funded by the National Collaborative on Childhood Obesity Reseach, a joint effort of the National Institutes of Health, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Department of Agriculture, and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. Dr. Wang is also a contributing author on two other related papers in the Lancet series on obesity.
Contacts and sources:
Stephanie Berger
Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health

Update on Hurricane Irene Impacts: North Carolina



The above visible satellite image shows Irene continuing to hold good form as she slowly advances toward the Carolinas. At 5pm EDT, the center of Irene was located approximately 265 miles South/Southwest of Cape Hatteras, and moving Northward at 14 mph.  Maximum sustained winds remain between 100 and 105 mph.   I still anticipate at least slight strengthening this evening or tonight as the center of Irene passes through the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.  This up-tick in intensity also continues to be forecast by the computer models as well...


Regardless of whether Irene has sustained winds of 105, 110 or even 115 mph on Saturday, the impacts along the coast and inland across North Carolina and southeast Virginia will be significant.


Tropical storm force winds have already been observed along the South Carolina coast this afternoon, and are spreading Northward up into North Carolina at this time.  A fan of my facebook page, Melissa Ham, was kind enough to give me this link to an awesome live webcam at Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina.  It's being buffeted around by tropical storm force winds and heavy rain right now.  The radar image below from Charleston shows squalls with heavy rain continuing to advance Northward into the regoin around the Northwest side of Irene:




Hurricane force winds will then overspread the region during the overnight hours and into early Saturday morning.


At this time, it appears that the center of Irene will pass directly over the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds (somewhere between Cape Hatteras and Williamston) by midday on Saturday.  The image below is the GFS computer forecast model, valid 2pm EDT Saturday:




Another computer model, called the HWRF, valid at the same time and zoomed-in tightly on the Carolina coast shows the center heading in the same general direction, but a little bit slower on this model:




While the two models differ slightly on the exact position of the center at 2pm tomorrow, the do agree on the geographical track, and they also both forecast Irene to be stronger at that time than she is now.  The GFS is forecasting a maximum surface wind of 115-120 mph, while the HWRF is forecasting a maximum surface wind of 130 mph.  Both of the models forecast Irene to intensify tonight and tomorrow morning as she moves across the Gulf Stream (as a pointed out a few paragraphs above).


I am in the camp that believes she will undergo at least modest intensification in the Gulf Stream tonight and Saturday morning.  Lets assume that she does intensify but go with the lowest sustained winds estimated by the above 2 models, at 115 mph.  That refers to the maximum sustained wind, which would take place within 30 or so miles of the center, across the Outer Banks, the sounds and adjacent portions of the mainland (mainly East of Highways 13 and 17, to the East of a roughly Murfreesboro to Jacksonville line).


To the West of that line, up to I-95 and I-40, sustained winds of hurricane force, with gusts up to 85 or 90 mph can be expected.  From there on back as far as the Raleigh-Durham and Fayetteville areas, sustained winds of tropical storm force (40-50 mph) with gusts to 60 mph will be a strong possibility.




I apologize for the crudeness of the image above, I just wanted to try and get this information out there as quickly as possible, as folks across this region should be rushing preparedness plans to completion at this time.  As I pointed out way up at the top of the post, winds will increase to tropical storm force across this region this evening and early tonight, then reach hurricane force in the indicated areas by late tonight or early Saturday morning (spreading from South to North).  The maximum sustained ranges and gusts indicated on the image above would likely take place beginning from mid-morning (in the South) to late afternoon (in the North) on Saturday, and based on the expected movement of the system could last from 6-9 hours in any given area.  As you can see, this will not be a short-lived event with respect to very strong, potentially damaging winds.


As I pointed out in my post concerning this region yesterday evening, the grounds are already saturated from recent rains.  An additional 6-12 inches of rain will fall across this region with Irene, about half of which could well take place even before the stronger winds arrive on Saturday.  Trees, many of which are already loaded with moisture, will become even more saturated while sitting within saturated (if not flooded) grounds.  All of these factors will come together when the winds arrive to produce widespread tree damage, which will also increase the threat for widespread power outages across the region.  If you don't already own a generator and think that you can find one at this late hour, it may prove to be a very wise investment...


Storm surge will be another issue with Irene.  The image below is called an "inundation map" and shows the forecast maximum impact of storm surge flooding by Irene:




The red shaded areas suggest 9-11 feet of water in those areas, while the orange and yellow shaded areas suggest 5-9 feet of water can be expected due to storm surge.  The image below is a close-up view of the area that is currently forecast to have the greatest surge impacts:




Heavy rainfall will also induce flash flooding in many areas, with 10-14 inches of rain currently forecast for the Eastern half of this area tonight through Saturday night.  


For additional information on specific local evacuation orders and expected storm surge magnitudes, please go to this link and select the office nearest you.


Hopefully folks across this area have heeded the warnings this week and are well prepared (if not heading West) to handle Irene.  


I'll have a full East Coast-wide update on Irene in a short while, along with updates for the Baltimore/Washington, New York City/New Jersey and New England areas later this evening...




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Midday Irene Update; East Coast Should Continue Preparing for Major Impacts



The latest visible (above) and infrared (below) satellite images still show a very symmetrical Hurricane Irene tightly wound up as she slowly approaches the Carolina coastline...




The eye is not currently visible, and the latest Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission "only" found a maximum sustained wind of 105 mph at the surface (much stronger winds of up to 130 mph were located right off of the surface).  We still can't really tell at this point whether the present eye and surface wind conditions have to do with an eye wall replacement cycle (see my post earlier today) or not.  If they do, then the eye will emerge again later today, and the winds are likely to grow stronger once again.





I am not ready to say, as some within the government and media are, that Irene has finished intensifying.  She still has 18+ hours before the 1st landfall, during which time the center will reside over the very warm, buoyant waters of the Gulf Stream for several hours.





As you can see by the latest image from the Charleston, SC radar, the eye of Irene is becoming visible a couple of hundred miles offshore (as noted by the red arrow):







The rest of the particulars from the 11am EDT National Hurricane Center (NHC) Advisory:  The center of Irene was located about 330 miles South/Southwest of Cape Hatteras, NC.  The minimum central pressure was 27.93 inches of mercury (946 millibars), and the movement was North at 14 mph.


Watches, warnings and advisories largely remain unchanged from the early morning NHC update, and can be seen on the image below:




I would expect the Hurricane Watches to be upgraded to Warnings by the late afternoon package.  Regardless of whether they "officially" are or not, I strongly encourage residents across that part of the region to continue rushing preparedness plans to completion today.  Major disruptions in transportation and potentially communication will make it more difficult to get to safety over the weekend.


Irene is a large, powerful storm.  Tropical storm force winds currently extend nearly 300 miles from the center, and hurricane force winds extend out nearly 100 miles from the center.  The potential for widespread wind damage, power outages, communications outages, storm surge and rainwater flooding continues to be very high in association with Irene all along the East Coast from North Carolina up into New England.


For specific local information on evacuation orders, please go to this link and select the National Weather Service office nearest you.


I will be closely monitoring observational and the latest midday computer model runs and plan a full, updated post on my thoughts on the future impacts and track of Irene late this afternoon or early this evening.  We should know with greater certainty by that time whether what we're witnessing right now is simply a fluctuation in intensity or something more permanent.  Either way, Irene will continue to be a significant hurricane with significant impacts on the way all along the East coast, as outlined in my region specific posts yesterday evening (those posts will be updated this evening as well).




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