TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES
On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA TORTURED BY THE EXTREME WEATHER THIS SPRINGsee below for details on today's potentially killer tornado outbreak....
RECORD TORNADO SEASON, RECORD FLOODS, DROUGHT, RECORD HEAT, COLD, RECORD SNOW....
Deadly Storms Slam Midwest as Levees Are Pushed to the Limit
FOX NEWS
Experts: Drought Could Continue in Southern U.S.
FOX NEWS
Dangerous outbreak of severe weather forecast for parts of South
CNN
Record April: Severe Weather Scorecard
THE WEATHER CHANNEL
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS AMERICA By Mark Vogan
Another Major Severe Weather/Tornado Day ahead for same states hit hardest yesterday
STATES UNDER THREAT FROM SEVERE WEATHER TODAY
NORTHEAST TEXAS (INCLUDING DALLAS-FT WORTH AREA), MUCH OF ARKANSAS (INCLUDING LITTLE ROCK AREA), NORTHWEST LOUISIANA, WESTERN-CENTRAL TENNESSEE (INCLUDING MEMPHIS AREA), KENTUCKY (INCLUDING LOUISVILLE AREA)
***DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDING***
Severe Weather/Tornadic threat about as high as it will ever be in cities including Dallas, Shreveport, Little Rock & Memphis late this afternoon and evening given the conditions and atmospheric environment currently in place.
As this afternoon wares on across an area stretching from NE Texas, up through NW Louisiana, most of Arkansas, western and central Tennessee and even up into Kentucky, southern Illinois, Indiana and western Pennsylvania, the atmosphere is bubling ahead of a potentially electrifying front treking eastwards. This front through this afternoon and evening WILL set up a potentially deadly, even catastropic tornadoes series of tornadoes, some of which could be both large, very powerful (EF3+) and could target major metro areas within the region mentioned... Stay tuned to your local media outlet for constant updates. This could be a matter of life or death for you if you live in this region of the country through tonight.
BACKGROUND INTO AN EXTREME SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN
Key reasons why the same areas that got hit yesterday have a high chance at getting hit again today
The same ingredients are still there...
1) Stalled frontal boundary remains in a similar position to yesterday
2) one low after another runs along the front, energizing an already energetic atmosphere thanks to large temp contrast across US
3) Strong surface heating and a surge of very moist-tropical air pushing north from the Gulf, and colliding with the front enhances the vertical forcing of air into the colder, higher environment of the upper-atmosphere. Aiding in stronger updrafts, which then create a taller, colder upper thunderstorm envirnoment.
4) A powerful westerly jet/the rotation of the upper low and the southeast surface wind all increases the ability for the atmosphere to twist and rotate thunderstorms forming along the boundary.
YESTERDAY'S 'LATE MORNING' STORMS LIKELY HELPED HOLD OFF EVEN WORSE STORMS FROM FORMING, TODAY, MAY NOT BE QUITE THE CASE...
While yesterday saw storms blossom with tornado producing supercells to the south of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and across Arkansas where Little Rock got hit hard late last night and a large tornado, however most of the storms from yesterday developed BEFORE any true surface heating could occur. The storms developed prior to maximum surface heating and high dew points air could really steam the atmosphere in which new storms forming could really 'blow their top' so to speak! Today may see more of the clear, hot, soupy air really bubble up before those storms fire up and move into this air along the leading edge of the boundary and this could spell major problems as these rapidly intensifying storms transition quick from strong 'regular' storms to rotary supercells which not only drop twisters from beneath them but also unleash just as damaging straight line winds, derechos, car smashing-roof penetrating baseball and grapefruit sized hail, a torrential 2-4 inch rains inside an hour along with dangerous lightning.
Strong/Severe Thunderstorms 'train' over and over the same areas, increasing the flooding throughout the Ohio & Mississippi Rivers
More often than not, when you've got the type of weather pattern that's producing this amount of severe and volatile weather across the American heartland, you've also got a flooding situation.
Unfortunately, the major issue with all this is when looking at the day by day actual temperatures verses the average temperature, the north is uniformly 10 to 15 below normal while the south is 10 to 15 above normal. Running a powerful upper-level support in between which forces countless formations of low pressures to then run along that jet and you've got the atmospheric perfection for the nastiest weather on earth to be unleashed. These storms are big rainfall producers and you don't need me to tell you that we've seen a tone of rain of late in the very areas we don't want to see any. The major river systems of the nation sit beneth this vast crossroads of extremes and this means 'training thunderstorms' when fronts become stuck over a region, rivers swell as rainfall amounts add up and that is exactly what we're seeing right now and will continue to see as this front that's the spark to the severe weather and tornadoes has barely budged in the last 48-72 hours and that's why we're seeing 10+ inches of rain in and around the same areas that have been smashed by twisters, hail, wind and everything else.
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE By Mark Vogan
UK beneath High Pressure for the remainder of the week but it's no garentee of sunny, warm weather
Despite a high pressure cell remaining in control of UK airspace, pressures are not only considerably weaker than what we've seen, but the core of this high is not directly overhead. It's shifted to the northeast and therefore we're seeing a much cooler and even slightly unsettling weather flow come in off the cold waters of the North Sea. This flow will hold such places as London, Birmingham and Manchester to only 12 to 15C, a massive drop from the mid-20s C. Along with the chill will come clouds which we saw prevalent across much of the north and Midlands of England, holding coastal highs today to perhaps 8 or 9C at best and only 12 to 14C in London which is a remarkable drop for just yesterday where it reached 24 at Solent and 25.3C the previous day.
Scotland will remain (like today) mostly sunny and mild, even boarding warm with 16 to 18C for most sunny, inland areas.
WEATHER TALK
By Mark Vogan
Computer Models suggest Cold May across a large chunk of US, short growing season?
While computer models suggest a cold May for much of the US, given the current pattern and what I believe will be an overall cool, wet summer for the Northern states in 2011, the chill may arrive early into Autumn. This would make for a substantially shortened growing season in 2011 across the Northern tier. A large area of Canada remains snowcovered and well below normal temperaturewise. This snow and chilled air has been of course affecting the northern US as this has persistently bled south.
WHAT'S REACHING TODAY'S BLOGS?
High Tornado Risk Vs. Population Maps
Jesse Ferrell, AccuWeather
Latest Maps and Videos Honing in on the Tornadoes
Henry Margusity, AccuWeather
WHAT'S ON TODAY'S WEATHERBELL BLOGS?
The Climate Fight.. An example of why it IS about the Weather!
Joe Bastardi's Blog, Weatherbell.com
Very stormy week with perhaps 200 tornado reports to ensure April 2011 record
Joe D'Aleo's Blog, Weatherbell.com
THE EXTREMES OF THE DAY
TODAY'S US EXTREMES
COURTESY OF ACCUWEATHER
HIGH: 111 degrees at Laredo, TX
LOW: 12 degrees at Berthoud Pass, CO
TODAY'S UK EXTREMES
COURTESY OF THE MET OFFICE
HIGH: 69 degrees (20.7C) at Solent (Hampshire)
LOW: 22 degrees (-5.4C) at Tulloch Bridge (Highland)
TODAY'S EXTREMES HERE AT MY HOUSE
HIGH: 61 degrees
LOW: 33 degrees
Thanks for reading.
-Mark
