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TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
Another Serious Day for Tornado Development across the Mississippi Valley
As of late PM, a lot of thunderstorms are starting to rotate quickly after their formation along the front over the Mississippi and Alabama! If you live here, be aware of your weather situation AT ALL TIMES!
Another day of 'Extreme Weather' across the Mississippi Valley
GREATEST THREAT AREA MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...CENTRAL TENNESSEE
All the ingredients are perfectly in place once again this afternoon for another relatively rare 'severe threat' for the region that encompasses Mississippi, Alabama & central Tennessee this afternoon and evening.
KEY FACTORS:
**Strong westerly jet stream **Upper Disturbance brings spin & cold air aloft **Very warm and moist air out ahead of the front creates the instability
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011
...OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS TORNADIC STORMS WITH A FEW STRONG TO VIOLENT...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADIC STORMS SHOULD ALSO EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA FAR NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA EASTERN MISSISSIPPI SOUTHERN TENNESSEE
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...CAROLINAS...CENTRAL TO NORTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE-ATLANTIC.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS ENCOUNTER A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND INTERACT WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR...THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR. A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO VIOLENT...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WILL EXIST IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. NUMEROUS TORNADIC STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CAROLINAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA...FAR NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA...NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE. A HIGH RISK FOR DAMAGING TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY EXPAND THIS AREA TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE...AS WELL AS AREAS FARTHER SOUTH INTO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA. STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..BROYLES.. 04/27/2011
Words from AccuWeather Meteorologist Henry Margusity.... "I've seen tornado outbreaks many times in my life and this one is shaping up to be a pretty bad one....
SCOTLAND ENJOYS THE BEST OF THE SUNSHINE ACROSS BRITAIN!
While, here in the UK it's been another glorious day with barely a cloud in the sky across a large portion of Scotland and much of the rest of Britain, temperatures are reacting well to the almost wall to wall and daylong sunshine as well as a strong late April sun. Highs have topped 16 to 18C (60-67F) across most areas away from the coast.
The high pressure currently in place has been providing Scotland with the best of the sunshine across Britain over the past two days and this looks set to continue with highs over the next 2-3 days remaining fairly warm for the time of year (always keep in mind that 'average' highs should only be around 13C). Most inland places should warm to 16-18C which is well above the average.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN MORE CENTERED OVER SCOTLAND, MAKING WINDS LIGHTER
While skies have been a little less perfect across the central and southern UK over the past few days, today was nicer and in coming days as an east flow brings more clouds and cold coastal winds in off the North Sea, again it should be sunniest across areas of England to the west of the Pennines and across much of Scotland, perhaps cooler and cloudier over eastern Scotland. Where the high remains stonger and more centered overhead, this makes for lighter winds and not that naging east wind isn't as much of a factor. Areas over northern, central and even southern areas, particularly eastern counties have experienced this. Temperatures shouldn't be too bad in coming days and as an actual fact look set to climb back towards 21C by Friday, however there is a chance of showers or even the odd thunderstorm.
With warm air practically covering much of the continent with 18 to 20C temperatures even in Moscow and 18-22C across much of central Europe, slightly warmer across the southern countries, some disturbances are bringing hefty thundershowers to many central, eastern areas which are spreading into the central and eastern Med. These showers have some energy thanks to the warm, moist air in place and this may aid in some torrential mid to late PM downpours.
Areas of the Low Countries will get in on some of these thunderstorms as they progress west towards the southern UK, likely making it into the London area for Friday. Because of the 18 to 22C air covering northern France, Belgium, Netherlands up into Denmark, the moisture will arrive and creating a fair bit of instability, making for a decent liklihood that these areas will see some thunderstorms develop and soak the region.
WEATHER TALK By Mark Vogan
EXCEPTIONAL HEAT AND DROUGHT COVERS NORTHEAST MEXICO & TEXAS
Courtesy of fellow blogger and facebook friend, Arturo Salinas of Monterrey, Mexico kindly rewrote this article (below) which was originally in Spanish relates to yesterday's extreme heat which was in fact one of Monterrey, Mexico's hottest EVER days never mind for the month of April!
According to information provided by the National Water Commission (Conagua), yesterday (Tuesday) at 4:10 pm locals had to endure the scorching temperatures reached in the Metro area of Monterrey. Thermometers rose to the mark of 44.7°C, one of the highest temperatures ever recorded in the state.
Data released by the agency claims that between 4:00 and 4:30 pm the Metro area experienced temperatures above 44°C reaching a maximum of 44.7°C.
During the evening, regios suffered by the consequences of these raging temperatures, as some of them claimed in a survey made that they had never experienced so much heat as they did yesterday.
People offering bottles of water, cokes and even some popsicles took advantage of the heat to gain some extra money in popular touristic areas in the city, stating that due to yesterday’s high sales they could get home earlier.
“Today we finished earlier due to high demand of cold beverages and sweets”, said one of the vendors located in the Bus Terminal located at downtown.
Arturo wrote on facebook that it reached 113 degrees F yesterday and this morning he told me just a few hours ago that the low this morning was an incredibly warm 86 degrees F, that folks is 30C! He states that there is an incredible 18 LARGE wildfires burning in and around Monterrey in northeast Mexico!
FOLLOW THE BLOG ON FACEBOOK&TWITTER AND CLICK LIKE/FOLLOW FOR REGULAR LOCAL, NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL WEATHER UPDATES, LINKS & MORE!
TODAY'S TOP WEATHER STORIES On Weather & Climate Through the Eyes of Mark Vogan
Another Serious Day for Tornado Development across the Mississippi Valley
As of late PM, a lot of thunderstorms are starting to rotate quickly after their formation along the front over the Mississippi and Alabama! If you live here, be aware of your weather situation AT ALL TIMES!
Another day of 'Extreme Weather' across the Mississippi Valley
GREATEST THREAT AREA MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...CENTRAL TENNESSEE
All the ingredients are perfectly in place once again this afternoon for another relatively rare 'severe threat' for the region that encompasses Mississippi, Alabama & central Tennessee this afternoon and evening.
KEY FACTORS:
**Strong westerly jet stream **Upper Disturbance brings spin & cold air aloft **Very warm and moist air out ahead of the front creates the instability
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED APR 27 2011
...OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS TORNADIC STORMS WITH A FEW STRONG TO VIOLENT...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THE THREAT FOR TORNADIC STORMS SHOULD ALSO EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA FAR NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA EASTERN MISSISSIPPI SOUTHERN TENNESSEE
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST STATES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...CAROLINAS...CENTRAL TO NORTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE-ATLANTIC.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS ENCOUNTER A VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND INTERACT WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR...THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR. A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO VIOLENT...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES WILL EXIST IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. NUMEROUS TORNADIC STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...AND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CAROLINAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA...FAR NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA...NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE. A HIGH RISK FOR DAMAGING TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. FUTURE FORECASTS MAY EXPAND THIS AREA TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE...AS WELL AS AREAS FARTHER SOUTH INTO EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA. STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
..BROYLES.. 04/27/2011
Words from AccuWeather Meteorologist Henry Margusity.... "I've seen tornado outbreaks many times in my life and this one is shaping up to be a pretty bad one....
SCOTLAND ENJOYS THE BEST OF THE SUNSHINE ACROSS BRITAIN!
While, here in the UK it's been another glorious day with barely a cloud in the sky across a large portion of Scotland and much of the rest of Britain, temperatures are reacting well to the almost wall to wall and daylong sunshine as well as a strong late April sun. Highs have topped 16 to 18C (60-67F) across most areas away from the coast.
The high pressure currently in place has been providing Scotland with the best of the sunshine across Britain over the past two days and this looks set to continue with highs over the next 2-3 days remaining fairly warm for the time of year (always keep in mind that 'average' highs should only be around 13C). Most inland places should warm to 16-18C which is well above the average.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN MORE CENTERED OVER SCOTLAND, MAKING WINDS LIGHTER
While skies have been a little less perfect across the central and southern UK over the past few days, today was nicer and in coming days as an east flow brings more clouds and cold coastal winds in off the North Sea, again it should be sunniest across areas of England to the west of the Pennines and across much of Scotland, perhaps cooler and cloudier over eastern Scotland. Where the high remains stonger and more centered overhead, this makes for lighter winds and not that naging east wind isn't as much of a factor. Areas over northern, central and even southern areas, particularly eastern counties have experienced this. Temperatures shouldn't be too bad in coming days and as an actual fact look set to climb back towards 21C by Friday, however there is a chance of showers or even the odd thunderstorm.
With warm air practically covering much of the continent with 18 to 20C temperatures even in Moscow and 18-22C across much of central Europe, slightly warmer across the southern countries, some disturbances are bringing hefty thundershowers to many central, eastern areas which are spreading into the central and eastern Med. These showers have some energy thanks to the warm, moist air in place and this may aid in some torrential mid to late PM downpours.
Areas of the Low Countries will get in on some of these thunderstorms as they progress west towards the southern UK, likely making it into the London area for Friday. Because of the 18 to 22C air covering northern France, Belgium, Netherlands up into Denmark, the moisture will arrive and creating a fair bit of instability, making for a decent liklihood that these areas will see some thunderstorms develop and soak the region.
WEATHER TALK By Mark Vogan
EXCEPTIONAL HEAT AND DROUGHT COVERS NORTHEAST MEXICO & TEXAS
Courtesy of fellow blogger and facebook friend, Arturo Salinas of Monterrey, Mexico kindly rewrote this article (below) which was originally in Spanish relates to yesterday's extreme heat which was in fact one of Monterrey, Mexico's hottest EVER days never mind for the month of April!
According to information provided by the National Water Commission (Conagua), yesterday (Tuesday) at 4:10 pm locals had to endure the scorching temperatures reached in the Metro area of Monterrey. Thermometers rose to the mark of 44.7°C, one of the highest temperatures ever recorded in the state.
Data released by the agency claims that between 4:00 and 4:30 pm the Metro area experienced temperatures above 44°C reaching a maximum of 44.7°C.
During the evening, regios suffered by the consequences of these raging temperatures, as some of them claimed in a survey made that they had never experienced so much heat as they did yesterday.
People offering bottles of water, cokes and even some popsicles took advantage of the heat to gain some extra money in popular touristic areas in the city, stating that due to yesterday’s high sales they could get home earlier.
“Today we finished earlier due to high demand of cold beverages and sweets”, said one of the vendors located in the Bus Terminal located at downtown.
Arturo wrote on facebook that it reached 113 degrees F yesterday and this morning he told me just a few hours ago that the low this morning was an incredibly warm 86 degrees F, that folks is 30C! He states that there is an incredible 18 LARGE wildfires burning in and around Monterrey in northeast Mexico!
Another Major Severe Weather/Tornado Day ahead for same states hit hardest yesterday
STATES UNDER THREAT FROM SEVERE WEATHER TODAY NORTHEAST TEXAS (INCLUDING DALLAS-FT WORTH AREA), MUCH OF ARKANSAS (INCLUDING LITTLE ROCK AREA), NORTHWEST LOUISIANA, WESTERN-CENTRAL TENNESSEE (INCLUDING MEMPHIS AREA), KENTUCKY (INCLUDING LOUISVILLE AREA)
***DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDING*** Severe Weather/Tornadic threat about as high as it will ever be in cities including Dallas, Shreveport, Little Rock & Memphis late this afternoon and evening given the conditions and atmospheric environment currently in place.
As this afternoon wares on across an area stretching from NE Texas, up through NW Louisiana, most of Arkansas, western and central Tennessee and even up into Kentucky, southern Illinois, Indiana and western Pennsylvania, the atmosphere is bubling ahead of a potentially electrifying front treking eastwards. This front through this afternoon and evening WILL set up a potentially deadly, even catastropic tornadoes series of tornadoes, some of which could be both large, very powerful (EF3+) and could target major metro areas within the region mentioned... Stay tuned to your local media outlet for constant updates. This could be a matter of life or death for you if you live in this region of the country through tonight.
BACKGROUND INTO AN EXTREME SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN
Key reasons why the same areas that got hit yesterday have a high chance at getting hit again today
The same ingredients are still there... 1)Stalled frontal boundary remains in a similar position to yesterday 2) one low after another runs along the front, energizing an already energetic atmosphere thanks to large temp contrast across US 3)Strong surface heating and a surge of very moist-tropical air pushing north from the Gulf, and colliding with the front enhances the vertical forcing of air into the colder, higher environment of the upper-atmosphere. Aiding in stronger updrafts, which then create a taller, colder upper thunderstorm envirnoment.
4)A powerful westerly jet/the rotation of the upper low and the southeast surface wind all increases the ability for the atmosphere to twist and rotate thunderstorms forming along the boundary.
YESTERDAY'S 'LATE MORNING' STORMS LIKELY HELPED HOLD OFF EVEN WORSE STORMS FROM FORMING, TODAY, MAY NOT BE QUITE THE CASE...
While yesterday saw storms blossom with tornado producing supercells to the south of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and across Arkansas where Little Rock got hit hard late last night and a large tornado, however most of the storms from yesterday developed BEFORE any true surface heating could occur. The storms developed prior to maximum surface heating and high dew points air could really steam the atmosphere in which new storms forming could really 'blow their top' so to speak! Today may see more of the clear, hot, soupy air really bubble up before those storms fire up and move into this air along the leading edge of the boundary and this could spell major problems as these rapidly intensifying storms transition quick from strong 'regular' storms to rotary supercells which not only drop twisters from beneath them but also unleash just as damaging straight line winds, derechos, car smashing-roof penetrating baseball and grapefruit sized hail, a torrential 2-4 inch rains inside an hour along with dangerous lightning.
Strong/Severe Thunderstorms 'train' over and over the same areas, increasing the flooding throughout the Ohio & Mississippi Rivers
More often than not, when you've got the type of weather pattern that's producing this amount of severe and volatile weather across the American heartland, you've also got a flooding situation.
Unfortunately, the major issue with all this is when looking at the day by day actual temperatures verses the average temperature, the north is uniformly 10 to 15 below normal while the south is 10 to 15 above normal. Running a powerful upper-level support in between which forces countless formations of low pressures to then run along that jet and you've got the atmospheric perfection for the nastiest weather on earth to be unleashed. These storms are big rainfall producers and you don't need me to tell you that we've seen a tone of rain of late in the very areas we don't want to see any. The major river systems of the nation sit beneth this vast crossroads of extremes and this means 'training thunderstorms' when fronts become stuck over a region, rivers swell as rainfall amounts add up and that is exactly what we're seeing right now and will continue to see as this front that's the spark to the severe weather and tornadoes has barely budged in the last 48-72 hours and that's why we're seeing 10+ inches of rain in and around the same areas that have been smashed by twisters, hail, wind and everything else.
TODAY'S WEATHER ACROSS UK & EUROPE By Mark Vogan
UK beneath High Pressure for the remainder of the week but it's no garentee of sunny, warm weather
Despite a high pressure cell remaining in control of UK airspace, pressures are not only considerably weaker than what we've seen, but the core of this high is not directly overhead. It's shifted to the northeast and therefore we're seeing a much cooler and even slightly unsettling weather flow come in off the cold waters of the North Sea. This flow will hold such places as London, Birmingham and Manchester to only 12 to 15C, a massive drop from the mid-20s C. Along with the chill will come clouds which we saw prevalent across much of the north and Midlands of England, holding coastal highs today to perhaps 8 or 9C at best and only 12 to 14C in London which is a remarkable drop for just yesterday where it reached 24 at Solent and 25.3C the previous day.
Scotland will remain (like today) mostly sunny and mild, even boarding warm with 16 to 18C for most sunny, inland areas.
WEATHER TALK By Mark Vogan
Computer Models suggest Cold May across a large chunk of US, short growing season?
While computer models suggest a cold May for much of the US, given the current pattern and what I believe will be an overall cool, wet summer for the Northern states in 2011, the chill may arrive early into Autumn. This would make for a substantially shortened growing season in 2011 across the Northern tier. A large area of Canada remains snowcovered and well below normal temperaturewise. This snow and chilled air has been of course affecting the northern US as this has persistently bled south.
